Potential Peace Breakthrough in Ukraine Negotiations

It has become increasingly evident that the war between Russia and Ukraine at its current pace is unsustainable. After 1,701 days of continuous fighting that have left up to 600,000 dead and more than 2 million casualties overall, there appears to be a breakthrough in the peace negotiations. For more than a year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has offered a freeze in hostilities, but Moscow kept refusing. Now Zelensky has made another offer to accept a ceasefire, halting the fighting along the current front line. On Oct. 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin told US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff that Russia is ready in principle to resume trilateral talks around Nov. 10.  

Ukraine Open to Freezing the Front Lines

Until the breaking news, negotiations had stalled, and fighting had reached a stalemate. To be fair, Zelensky did not simply agree to give up the land Russia has seized; he also raised an issue he has insisted on from the beginning of the war. He wants the European Union, the United States, and the rest of NATO to provide security guarantees to ensure that, once an agreement is reached and Ukraine stops fighting, Russia doesn’t resume the battle with greater intensity. During an interview with Zelensky on Fox & Friends, Brian Kilmeade asked Zelensky whether he would agree to a deal in which Ukraine keeps “75% or more” of its territory. Zelensky responded: 

“Yes, right now, we have to freeze. And I think this is [a] real way to end this war. We call it ceasefire or ‘stop killing,’ like President Trump called it. Freeze and stop. And, of course, this is the minimum of what we need from Russia today. Then, of course, we will go to [the] president and to Europeans, and we'll ask security guarantees. The most important is peace and also security [of] peace. Not to be afraid that occupation will come back, aggression will come back, killings will come back. We need 9.5 million people which are abroad everywhere. We need them to come back to Ukraine, just to live and to build their country.”

Zelensky’s comments came the day after a meeting in Oslo, Norway, on Oct. 20. The discussions involved Zelensky, Jared Kushner (by video), Witkoff, and delegations from NATO and the European Union. According to Intellinews, “The Oslo talks covered a comprehensive peace framework including long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, a post-war economic and prosperity plan and a ‘broader European security architecture designed to create lasting stability.’”

"Zelenskiy said the latest US proposal carries guarantees modelled on Nato's Article 5 and that Witkoff would put the document to Moscow," explained Intellinews. Article 5 is NATO’s mutual-defense language, which says an attack against one member is an attack on all. In past negotiations, Russian negotiators objected to NATO membership for Ukraine and the presence of Western troops there.

Trump Shares His Thoughts

In a White House press availability on Tuesday, Trump said, "Russia would like to get it done. ... Russia's a big machine. They just keep grinding forward, and that's what they've done. They've taken a very large piece of land, and, you know, you can say that Ukraine is doing well or poorly, but the land [Russia has taken] gets bigger and bigger all the time."

Trump continued, observing, “[Russia has] an unlimited supply of people. … Ukraine has lost a lot of people. Russia is a giant nation, Ukraine is not.” The president added, Zelensky “has to want to settle this war. And if he doesn't, I think it's going to be a very bad thing. Look, we have given tremendous amounts to Ukraine. We've gotten nothing back other than high diesel [prices].”

Whether this is a watershed moment remains to be seen. Zelensky’s public openness to a ceasefire that leaves Ukraine with roughly 75% of its pre-war territory is promising. The Ukrainian leader favors a trilateral meeting with Putin and Trump. Such talks would go a long way toward identifying the key stumbling blocks to a lasting end to a war in which Russia alone has suffered an estimated 30,000 to 34,000 casualties a month.

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