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Political Horse Race: Trump Odds Full Steam Ahead

Despite the impeachment inquiry, Trump leaves the field behind.

The Candidates’ Market Report

President Trump appears to be doing the impossible. Despite being pilloried by the media, facing a massive impeachment effort by House Democrats, and generally getting incredibly poor press coverage, Donald Trump has not only improved his overall job approval numbers but also managed to pull ahead of the 2020 contender pack.

Has the president solved world hunger this week? Has he brokered a peace treaty with North Korea? No. In fact, in terms of presidential performance, this has been a quiet week for the commander-in-chief. So what is driving his numbers? All data points to a critical error in strategy made by Democrats: They have pushed so hard to find dirt on him that they have managed to portray him as an underdog once more. This is where Trump likes to be, crowded by Swamp dwellers and putting on a show. He has been handed an electoral gift … will it last?

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

  • Donald Trump – 50% ( + 3%)
  • Congress – 22% ( no change)

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

  • Elizabeth Warren – 13/5
  • Joe Biden – 10/3
  • Pete Buttigieg – 7/2
  • Bernie Sanders – 11/2
  • Andrew Yang – 11/1
  • Hillary Clinton – 14/1
  • Michael Bloomberg – 20/1
  • Kamala Harris – 25/1

A disastrous week for Senator Elizabeth Warren as she loses almost a full point in the race for the Democratic Party nomination; Joe Biden fails to capitalize on this slump and loses a third of a point. The only real winner this week is South Bend’s Pete Buttigieg, who gets used to being a top-three candidate and improves his numbers by a tasty point and a half.

That the top-tier candidates are suffering signifies that this race is far from a done deal; it is still wide-open to latecomers or even those who can capture the public imagination. Perhaps the dark horse in this race is actually the slow and steady Biden, who wavers a point up or down each week and weathers the storms somewhat better than his rivals.

Despite entering the race at a cool 12/1 last week, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg has dropped behind Hillary Clinton and is sitting on a fairly poor 20/1.

Presidential Election:

  • Donald Trump – 6/5
  • Elizabeth Warren – 5/1
  • Joe Biden – 6/1 
  • Pete Buttigieg –  13/2
  • Bernie Sanders – 9/1
  • Andrew Yang – 20/1
  • Hillary Clinton – 25/1
  • Michael Bloomberg – 35/1
  • Mike Pence – 40/1
  • Kamala Harris – 45/1
  • Nikki Haley – 50/1
  • Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
  • Mitt Romney – 90/1
  • Amy Klobuchar – 100/1

With Cory Booker languishing on 125/1, people are beginning to wonder just how long he will hang in for before finally withdrawing.

Trump is widening the gap between himself and his 2020 competitors, or more rightly, his competitors are losing ground to what is now becoming an incredibly stable 6/5 to win the White House. Warren loses a point and a half, making it far more likely that Trump will have an effective clear run at a second term.

If it weren’t for his approval numbers and betting odds, this could be described as a terrible week for Donald Trump, but being in the underdog position, fighting off impeachment inquiries, and facing media attacks is his preferred turf. The president has managed to capitalize on the negative press coverage and turn it to his advantage by digging deep into the underdog role.


Donald Trump:

  • Impeachment – 2/7
  • Resignation – 5/1
  • Trump to ban Gay Adoption – 7/1
  • To surgically enhance his hands – 500/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.


Read more from Mark Angelides.

Read More From Mark Angelides

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