The Candidates’ Market Report
It’s now officially election year and all eyes are on the battle for the White House. With President Trump maintaining a healthy lead over his potential opponents for the top spot, Democrat hopefuls will be praying that their much-divided party will fall into line and play ball when it comes to casting a ballot. If Democratic voters remain in two camps – progressive left and mainstream left – there may not be the turnout needed to even win the popular vote.
The latest polling out of Virginia and Florida has Trump beating all comers in a match-up, except for former Vice President Joe Biden. Good news for Biden, but can he rely on that same level of support in districts that presently favor either Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), or Mayor Pete Buttigieg?
Trump kicks off the new year with a 48% job approval rating, two points above where Barack Obama was during the same period in his presidency.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 48% ( no change )
- Congress – 20% ( + 2% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 15/8
- Bernie Sanders – 7/2
- Elizabeth Warren – 4/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 6/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 8/1
- Hillary Clinton – 13/1
- Andrew Yang – 18/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 20/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
There’s little change in the odds for who is likely to win the 2020 nomination. In fact, only Amy Klobuchar has improved her position this week, gaining five points and landing in eighth position on 20/1. The lack of movement is almost certainly due to bettors laying off their books for the holiday season.
Joe Biden is still the clear favorite to take on President Trump in November; along with winning head-to-head polling against the president in both Florida and Virginia, he has so far managed to avoid many of the pitfalls that usually threaten the frontrunner. Andrew Yang managed to pull in an extra $3.5 million in the last week of December for his campaign, showing he has some fight left – but will it be enough for him to break into the top five?
The dark horse in this race is still Hillary Clinton. She still hasn’t ruled out a last-minute entry and is insisting that there are “concerned individuals pressuring” her to run. If Biden can’t swing the more progressive Democrat wing behind him, Clinton may just step in to “save” the party.
- Donald Trump – 5/6
- Joe Biden – 9/2
- Bernie Sanders – 15/2
- Elizabeth Warren – 11/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 12/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 14/1
- Hillary Clinton – 25/1
- Andrew Yang – 35/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 40/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
- Mitt Romney – 100/1
President Trump maintains his strong lead to retake the White House in 2020. Joe Biden stays ahead of the Democrat pack in the number two spot, yet at 9/2, he’s a long way from actually beating The Donald. A range of factors could derail the president’s hopes for four more years: the impeachment trial, a poor result in the latest Iraq debacle, the collapse of the impending China trade deal. Any of these could negatively impact his numbers.
With Michael Bloomberg apparently willing to spend whatever it takes to win the nomination, his poor odds (25/1) on winning the presidency may experience a major upswing over the next couple of months, especially if Biden gets tarnished by the Senate impeachment trial.
- Senate Convicts – 12/1
- Senate Doesn’t Convict – 1/50
- Complete First Term – 1/12
- How Many Republican Senators Vote to Convict Trump:
- Zero – EVS
- 15 to 19 – 12/1
- Trump to Win a Nobel Peace Prize Before the End of His 1st Term – 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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