New DNC Calendar Casts a Shadow Over Socialists’ 2028 Ambitions

The DNC (Democratic National Committee) will vote this weekend on whether to adopt a 2028 presidential primary schedule proposed in July by its Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC). The new calendar puts South Carolina and Nevada in the first two slots, a move intended to capture a more diverse group of voters in the early-window states. But the rearranged lineup suggests there’s more to this than just race.

The DNC Shuffle

At its summer meeting in Texas, taking place from August 13 to 15, the DNC is set to approve six states to kick off the 2028 Democratic presidential primary: South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia – scheduled in that order. The first one is where Joe Biden’s 2020 presidential campaign gained a second life and pulled ahead of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT). Notably, 56% of South Carolina Democratic primary voters were black, according to The Washington Post’s exit polls, and they preferred Biden over Sanders: 61% to 17%.

Notice which type of candidate South Carolina voters preferred: the establishment over the progressive. That same year, however, Sanders took the Nevada caucuses with 46.8% of the vote, and in New Hampshire, a predominantly white state, he narrowly won with 25.6%. Back in 2016, though, Sanders clobbered Hillary Clinton in the NH Democratic presidential primary, a victory that catapulted his campaign. With the rise of socialists winning primaries and fracturing the party this election cycle, establishment figures would probably like to avoid giving a far-left candidate any chance to gain early momentum in the next presidential primaries. Putting South Carolina first might dodge such a situation and boost whoever is the party favorite.

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Of course, electorates change over the years, so what happened in 2020 and 2016 is not necessarily indicative of what might happen in 2028. However, around the same time the RBC was choosing the early primary states in July 2026, a new University of New Hampshire poll showed Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a progressive from New York, as the early frontrunner among prospective Democratic candidates in the 2028 NH presidential primary. Additionally, she had a 64% favorability rating among likely Democratic primary voters in the state, with only 9% expressing an unfavorable opinion of her. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg came in second, a sign that if a progressive is on the ballot, Granite State Democrats are likely to vote for that person.

New Hampshire will still hold its state-run primary first; by law, NH must hold its presidential primary election at least a week before any other state’s. But a new DNC rule claims any candidates who participate in the Granite State’s early primary will lose delegates won in other early states and sacrifice their access to the DNC’s debate stages, which would be a blow to a populist candidate’s momentum.

Now, some might say, “What’s the big deal? NH and Nevada are still in the early lineup.” Indeed, they are, but the first state really sets the tone for a campaign. Also, the more socialist-friendly states don’t carry nearly as much weight as the others do, and the way the calendar is set up leaves establishment-favored candidates with a possible big start and a big finish.

Stacking the Deck

The selection of the early states is almost as important as their order. It’s no accident that this slate of contests opens with South Carolina and ends with Virginia. The first state could be an impetus to an establishment candidate, and the sixth could act as a kingmaker.

Virginia is home to a huge swath of white-collar voters and is unlikely to be a boon for a socialist. Michigan, on the other hand, is currently a testing ground for how far left the Democratic electorate might be willing to go. If progressive Abdul El-Sayed wins the Senate race against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) in November, his victory may signal that the Wolverine State could be favorable to an ultra-progressive candidate in 2028. Biden beat Sanders there, 52.9% to 36.4%, a week after Super Tuesday in 2020.

New Mexico is a first-timer to the early calendar, so it’s difficult to gauge which way voters will lean. In 2020, Sanders got 15% to Biden’s 73%; however, that primary was held in June, when it was obvious Biden would be the nominee; plus, Sanders had already dropped out of the race.

More important, perhaps, is the number of delegates the states will have. The totals for each have yet to be set, but to get an idea of how valuable each state might be, we can look at the figures from the 2024 Democratic National Convention: South Carolina and Virginia combined for 184 delegates, while New Mexico and Michigan totaled 183. New Hampshire and Nevada together equaled only 83.

Of course, nobody can predict how this map will play out until the candidates begin competing. The DNC certainly hasn’t made it impossible for a socialist candidate to grab the 2028 Democratic nomination. But with the start and finish lines moved to states where socialist coalitions will probably be the weakest, New Hampshire and Nevada almost seem like consolation prizes, more valuable for headlines than delegates.