The Candidates’ Market Report
Heading into the holiday season, voters are wondering whether there is an impeachment trial waiting in the New Year. News reports are filled with stories about Democrats and Republicans debating if they should vote for or against the impeachment of President Trump, leading naturally to a game of speculative math. There are at least 30 House Democrats in seats that strongly favored the president in 2016 and will likely vote for him again in 2020; will trying to remove the president from office scupper their chances of re-election?
There is also talk of a handful of Republican senators who may, at the last-minute, vote against the president. Are these just rumors or is there a trap waiting in the Senate trial?
If Democrats are so confident that their case is watertight, the question of why leading Democrat nominees are each still touting themselves as the “only one who can get rid of President Trump” needs to be asked.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 49% ( – 2% )
- Congress – 18% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 11/4
- Bernie Sanders – 4/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 4/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 5/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 9/1
- Hillary Clinton – 12/1
- Andrew Yang – 20/1
- Michelle Obama – 33/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 35/1
While Joe Biden remains the firm favorite to win the Democrat nomination, little attention is being paid to Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who appears to be making a last-minute push to take the top spot. After a series of polls placed him in the number two position behind the former VP, the betting markets have sparked to life around a campaign once thought dead in the water.
Pete Buttigieg, embroiled in one minor controversy after another, has taken a hit this week. From second place to fourth, Mayor Pete has lost the momentum that was originally generated not through his campaigning, but via a media keen to have an “Obama-like” figure in the running. If he loses one more point from his present five to one standing, Buttigieg may find himself relegated to third-tier status once more.
Elizabeth Warren is in danger of treading water until she’s too tired to swim back to shore. Some may see her polling steadiness as an advantage, but in a market that is constantly moving, bettors prefer action. If she can’t excite interest, she’ll slowly slip behind candidates who can.
- Donald Trump – EVS
- Joe Biden – 6/1
- Bernie Sanders – 8/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 10/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 12/1
- Hillary Clinton – 25/1
- Andrew Yang – 33/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 66/1
- Mitt Romney – 90/1
President Trump remains the favorite on even money to win in 2020. The Democrat field, however, seems to be suffering. Elizabeth Warren has lost 3 points, dropping from seven to one down to ten to one as Bernie Sanders gains half a point. Mayor Pete is also having trouble as he drops from third place to fifth.
Despite all the action and movement, Joe Biden is still in second place to win the presidency on six to one, a figure he has been unable to improve upon even considering Trump’s tough week facing impeachment.
Perhaps the numbers imply something about the sate of the nation. Could it be that when Hillary Clinton faced Trump in 2016, her nomination was considered by Democrat voters to have been a usurpation of Bernie Sanders? If so, this late stage run might indicate that Bernie Bros around the country see this election as unfinished business; they may not think Bernie can actually win, but that he at least deserves his fair shot.
The odds of Trump being impeached and having to face a Senate trial have jumped dramatically this week from one to eight to a massive one to eighteen, meaning that if you bet one dollar on it happening, you’ll only make six cents.
- Impeachment – 1/18
- Resignation – 2/9
- Trump to grant dual US nationality to all Mexicans – 300/1
- Trump and Putin to receive joint Nobel Peace Prize – 50/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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