The Candidates’ Market Report
Super Tuesday is just around the corner and candidates are getting nervous. Joe Biden may just be hinging his hopes and dreams on a solid showing in South Carolina, but if Bernie Sanders gets his way, the first of the Political Big Beasts will be slain. With President Trump only facing a handful of primary challengers, his position is secure and he seems to be enjoying not just the internecine warfare in the Democratic Party, but also the increasingly bizarre way in which Dem primaries are being so poorly conducted.
The president is on a 49% approval rating this week, again, and with 46% of voters saying the country is on the right track, February may turn out to be his best month on record.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 49% ( no change )
- Congress – 18% ( + 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Bernie Sanders – 8/11
- Michael Bloomberg – 7/2
- Pete Buttigieg – 9/1
- Joe Biden – 10/1
- Hillary Clinton – 25/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 40/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 100/1
- Michelle Obama – 100/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 200/1
- Tom Steyer – 400/1
Joe Biden slips another three points to a 10/1 fourth-place position behind Pete Buttigieg, Michael Bloomberg, and the confident frontrunner Bernie Sanders. It would be easy to attribute Biden’s political demise to a feisty campaign by Bloomberg, but the reality is that even the former NYC mayor’s campaign is feeling the Bern.
This is now Sanders’ nomination to lose. Should he manage to carry enough momentum into Super Tuesday, it may all be over. If he fails, however, waiting in the wings will be either Biden or Bloomberg… one or the other, not both. With these two men in the race, they are both feeding off the same audience; when one eventually drops out, the other will see a surge in support, but by then it may be too late.
Amy Klobuchar’s campaign is effectively over; at 100 to one, she’s not going to get any major backing. Elizabeth Warren can hold out for a little while longer on the chance that she may swing a VP pick.
Primary Races
South Carolina Primary
- Joe Biden – 8/11
- Bernie Sanders – 8/11
- Tom Steyer – 33/1
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 4/7
- Bernie Sanders – 11/4
- Michael Bloomberg – 9/1
- Joe Biden – 20/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 25/1
- Hillary Clinton – 66/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 100/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 200/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 300/1
- Tom Steyer – 500/1
Joe Biden (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
With primary season heating up, the cash betting markets are starting to solidify around a handful of potential winners. Gamblers are no longer putting their money on a possible longshot in the hopes that their particular horse will make a last-minute run, and all the money is focusing on the top three candidates. We can see this by the not-quite-so favorite contenders, Joe Biden and Pete Buttigieg, being stuck on the same disappointing numbers as last week while all hell breaks loose above and below their positions.
After a strong showing in New Hampshire, Amy Klobuchar began climbing up the ranks, but as swiftly as she rose, she fell when the Nevada primary awarded her less than 5% of the vote; she sank from an outside 33/1 to a truly terrible 200/1. Tom Steyer is now a true longshot at 500/1.
Even Michael Bloomberg seems to be suffering in the wake of a resurgent Sanders campaign, dropping from a respectable 5/1 to a desultory 9/1. However, Bloomberg is still firmly in the race if he can drum up support come Super Tuesday.
Donald Trump:
- Complete first term – 1/18
- The Queen to ban Trump from the UK – 100/1
- Trump to deport Madonna – 80/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
