The Candidates’ Market Report
In the wake of the Tara Reade accusations, Joe Biden has started to slip in both the polls and the betting markets to win the Democratic Party presidential nomination. What looked like a sure thing just a few weeks ago is now in doubt. President Trump is struggling to regain his former 47-49% approval rating as the Coronavirus continues to rock the economy; will it turn around in time for the November election?
When Bernie Sanders suspended his campaign, it looked almost certain that Biden would officially receive the nomination at the Milwaukee convention, but each passing day sees his odds slumping. This does not mean, however, that Bernie is likely to take the crown.
CBS/YouGov and Harper polls both give Biden a six-point lead over the president; IBD/TIPP and Dallas Morning News polls have both men tied at 43%. A RealClearPolitics average gives Biden a 5.2% lead based on all available polling, but it’s worth remembering that even though the odds point to the eventual Democratic candidate winning the popular vote, the presidency is decided by the number of Electoral College votes.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 45% ( no change )
- Congress – 21% ( – 2% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/10
- Hillary Clinton – 10/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 25/1
- Michelle Obama – 33/1
- Bernie Sanders – 40/1
Just last week, Joe Biden was sitting pretty on 1/33 to win the nomination – a supposedly unassailable position that has since slumped. The former VP has slipped to 1/10; still a healthy favorite but certainly not as strong as he might hope with the Milwaukee convention just over three months away. Hillary Clinton, despite endorsing Joe in a live stream appearance, has inched up the leaderboard and is now at 10/1, possibly making her a backup if Biden’s numbers continue to tank. It’s worth noting that various news outlets have begun publishing speculation pieces suggesting that a Trump-Clinton rematch might be on its way.
Bernie Sanders has reappeared on the leaderboard after several weeks away. When he suspended his campaign and endorsed Biden, it was assumed that all Bernie bets were off … not so. It is likely that the Sanders campaign team is working overtime trying to either build support (be on the lookout for less radical stances) or angling for a top spot in the possible administration (watch for heavy campaigning in late May, early June).
Perhaps Biden need not be so worried. After appearing on MSNBC’s Morning Joe to answer the allegations against him, his surrogates went to bat stating that he gave a credible performance (which he did) and that he put the claims to bed (which he didn’t). However, according to Liberty Nation’s Graham J. Noble’s assessment of the latest polling:
“How does the American voter feel about the sexual assault allegation made against presumptive 2020 candidate Joe Biden? 34% of likely voters believe Tara Reade’s story of Biden submitting her to a serious assault in 1993. 24% believe the former vice president’s denial, but a massive 41% are undecided.”
Kamala Harris is now the firm favorite to be Biden’s running mate.
Biden’s Running Mate
- Kamala Harris – 7/4
- Amy Klobuchar – 4/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/2
- Gretchen Whitmer – 9/1
- Stacey Abrams – 10/1
- Michelle Obama – 10/1
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation’s Tim Donner puts it:
“Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in ’16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling – both swing states Trump lost in ’16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now.”
- Florida: Democrats – 5/6; Republicans – 5/6
- Arizona: Democrats – 4/6; Republicans – 11/10
- Michigan: Democrats – 4/9; Republicans – 6/4
- Wisconsin: Democrats – 8/11; Republicans – 10/11
The Democratic National Convention has been postponed and is expected to begin on August 17.
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Joe Biden – 6/5
- Hillary Clinton – 20/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 35/1
- Jesse Ventura – 35/1
- Mike Pence – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 50/1
- Bernie Sanders – 80/1
Trump followed by Biden is still the order of the day in the presidential race. However, despite it seeming a close race, the Electoral College is where all the betting action is taking place. Democrats seem poised to win the popular vote on 1/4, but Republicans are 4/5 favorites to win the presidency.
Jesse Ventura has now joined the Green Party. The former Minnesota governor (and one-time pro-wrestler) has so far denied that he will be running for the White House but cryptically retweeted a post with #Ventura2020 just this week.
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump
- 251 – 269 = 5/1
- 270 – 275 = 11/2
- 276 – 280 = 5/1
- 281 – 290 = 13/2
- 291 – 300 = 6/1
- 301 – 315 = 6/1
- 316 – 330 = 7/1
- 331 – 350 = 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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