Pelosi to Visit Taiwan – the Red Dragon’s Fiery Breath Be Damned

During a planned Asian junket, it appears the scene is set for US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to visit Taiwan in a high-stakes game of international diplomatic chicken. Stops in the region include Singapore, Malaysia, South Korea, and Japan. Although no one from the US delegation is confirming, the Taiwanese government has said Pelosi is scheduled to arrive in Taipei today on an overnight stay. But the proposed trip is causing heartburn for both the Biden administration and the Chinese government.

Severe warnings were issued by Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian: “China will take resolute responses and strong countermeasures to defend its sovereignty and territorial integrity.” More menacing statements were delivered by the People’s Liberation Army’s Eastern Theater Command, which claimed in a video posted online Aug. 1 that it would “bury incoming enemies.” The message was clear: China is prepared for a fight unless Pelosi skips a landing in independently governed Taiwan. Zhao did not commit to a detailed threat, but a sinister intent seemed clear: “As for what measures, if she dares to go, then let’s wait and see.” Those might be considered fighting words directed at a US official second in line of succession to the office of the president.

To further complicate travel plans, the China Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning: It is time for war games to commence in the region, and all non-participants are forbidden to enter. The schedule conveniently coincides with the speaker’s visit to Taiwan.

China perceives Pelosi's stay to signal support for factions of the pro-independence camp in Taiwan. There are no official diplomatic ties between Washington and the semi-presidential Taiwanese government. What’s more, China appears ready to invade the island and use it for strategic purposes. If the rumblings are true – that Pelosi intends to meet with freedom-loving Taiwanese activists who speak out against China’s human rights record – the People’s Republic would undoubtedly be concerned.

Pelosi to Visit Taiwan or Back Down to the Red Bully?

Republicans and Democrats have bristled at the warnings levied by China against Pelosi. No one appreciates the big red bully in US ambassadorial circles. And although President Joe Biden has discouraged the visit, he has not forbidden Pelosi from leading the congressional tour. Other elected officials view the rhetoric as a line drawn in the sand. “It is Speaker Pelosi’s decision alone on whether or not to travel to Taiwan, not any other country,” said Rep. Darin LaHood (R-IL). Rep. Rick Larsen (D-WA) noted that: “It’s not my job to tell the speaker what the speaker does or doesn’t do.”

Republican Newt Gingrich, the last House speaker to visit Taiwan back in 1997, has urged his former colleague to carry on, calling the Biden administration’s lack of support “timidity, covered by insecurity and an eagerness to appease people who aren’t Americans.”

What, Me Worry?

To add further pressure, regional experts warn of a potential incident. Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, advised that with escalation, “There’s a risk of an accident, not a risk of an imminent Chinese attack on Taiwan.” And that would no doubt cause a crisis – militarily and diplomatically.

As the trip bends toward a visit to Taiwan, the speaker has remained close-mouthed about her imminent plans. She told inquiring reporters, “I never talk about my travel. It’s a danger to me.” She failed to mention it would also be a hazard for the United States, but that thought did not seem to cross her mind.