The top line of a New York Times/Siena presidential poll released yesterday, March 2, tells the story: “Biden is Unpopular” followed by “Voters Favor Trump.” America’s so-called newspaper of record didn’t quite have the mettle to place this news on the front page of its print edition. Still, the digital website demonstrated an element of fortitude by taking up most of its front page with a comprehensive article and graphic revealing a seven-point swing in favor of former President Trump since the last NYT poll conducted just before Christmas.
A snapshot of the last six NYT/Siena poll surveys reveals the American electorate’s changing face. In two surveys conducted in 2022, Mr. Biden maintained a three-point lead, but the last poll of that year flip-flopped, with Trump moving ahead of Biden by one-point. Then 2023 began with a statistical dead heat followed by a two-point lead for Biden just before Christmas. Now, the former president has turned the tables, moving ahead of Joe Biden – 48% to 43%.
The top lines of the NYT poll reveal that the deeper one digs, the worse things look for the 81-year-old incumbent. It exposed a profoundly divided Democratic Party, with half of the respondents saying Biden should be their nominee and the other half saying he shouldn’t. Worse still, voters don’t appear to be buying the Biden campaign messages. “More than twice as many voters believe Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them as they believe his policies have helped them,” according to the Times article, with a majority of respondents bemoaning the state of the economy. But there’s more bad news for the sitting president.
Poll numbers show Trump ahead in five of six of the all-important swing states. In Nevada, it’s Trump plus ten; in Georgia, it’s Trump plus six; in Arizona and Michigan, it’s Trump plus five; and in Pennsylvania, it’s Trump plus four. The only battleground state that put Biden on top was Wisconsin, and even then, it was only by two points.
NYT Poll – Biden Is Bleeding Black, Hispanic and Female Voters
In an article analyzing the poll, the NYT used the words “warning signs” when discussing Mr. Biden’s popularity with black, Hispanic, and female voters. In other words, the numbers show he’s starting to hemorrhage support with these three demographic groups that have historically been Democratic strongholds.
Among blacks, Biden carried 66% to Trump’s 23%. The number was closer with Hispanics and deeply worrying for Democrats – 40% went for Biden, and 46% said they plan to vote Trump. Among women, Biden and Trump are in a dead heat at 46%. The former president led the incumbent by 13% among those who self-identified as white.
When it comes to who will show up at the polls or, at the very least, turn in their mailed ballot, pollsters often look to what’s known as the enthusiasm factor. Here again, Mr. Trump carries the big stick, with 48% saying they are enthusiastic about casting their vote for him, while only 23% felt the same about Biden.
Meanwhile, a theme of discontent is evident in the survey – 65% feel “the nation is headed in the wrong direction,” with only 24% who disagree and say it’s on the right track, according to the Times/Siena crosstabs.
Reaction to the NYT poll came out fast and furious on X. Amy Walter, Editor-in-Chief of the Cook Political Report, downplayed the survey but posed a few worthy questions: “Re: latest NYT/Siena poll. Nothing new or surprising. Right now, the election is referendum on Biden. Can he make this a ‘choice’ election & win back ’20 voters who are defecting to Trump or ‘don’t know’? That is the $100B question to which we won’t have an answer for months.”
With eight months until election day 2024, this comes as welcome news for those who support former President Donald Trump. Will he go from strength to strength and add on to his lead, or will circumstance – be it legal actions or another surprise – set him back on his heels? Republicans may have to hold their breath between now and then, but they certainly can’t complain about the current state of affairs.
