One down. One to go. Ukraine has agreed to a ceasefire. It’s over to Russia now. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has moved the peace football into the red zone. Saudi Arabian leader Prince Mohammed bin Salman hosted the US and Kyiv delegations on March 11 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, to hash out a peace framework, where the four-hour conference charted a path to negotiate the way ahead.
Ukraine Responded Positively
Applying pressure to both parties in the devastating conflict may have worked. President Donald Trump's initiative to bring an end to the horrific killing of soldiers and civilians -- promised in his election campaign and commenced on taking office -- appears to be bearing fruit. Though an earlier White House Oval Office "conversation" between Presidents Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky ended acrimoniously, the Ukrainian sent a letter to Trump apologizing for the public dustup. Just the News explained, "Trump special envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed in a Fox News interview on Monday [Mar. 10] that 'Zelensky sent a letter to the president. He apologized for that whole incident that happened in the Oval Office.'" The apology helped clear the air and improve the US-Ukraine relationship.
The agreement reached in Jeddah resulted in a joint statement by the two governments. In a press release, the State Department published the text that was approved by the US and Ukraine governments. The key phrases read:
"The Ukrainian delegation reiterated the Ukrainian people's strong gratitude to President Trump, the US Congress, and the people of the United States for making possible meaningful progress toward peace. Ukraine expressed readiness to accept the US proposal to enact an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties and is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation."
The statement establishes the path forward to engage the Russians with a substantive and shared position. Additionally, the pressure is now on Russia to negotiate responsibly and in good faith or be seen as the obstructionist to peace. At this point, that is not a good look for President Vladimir Putin on the world stage.
During a press conference following the meetings, Rubio clarified that the United States was driving the train to advance the peace initiative, saying, "Today we've made an offer that the Ukrainians have accepted, which is to enter into a ceasefire and into immediate negotiations to end this conflict in a way that's enduring and sustainable and accounts for their interests, their security, their ability to prosper as a nation." National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, also at the press availability, announced that because the Ukrainian government had made positive steps toward peace, "[T]he President has decided to lift the pause on aid and on our security assistance to Ukraine going forward. And that's effective immediately."
Threats Can Work
When Trump made clear he was serious about getting the warring countries to the negotiating table by threatening to extend sanctions on Russia and reminding Ukraine that military arms and intelligence assistance from the United States was conditional on Kyiv wanting peace, there was progress. During a stop in Shannon, Ireland, on March 12, Rubio took another opportunity to talk with the press. Michael Gordon of The Wall Street Journal raised important questions. Because the Russians are still making gains on the Ukraine battlefield, Gordon asked, since there has been no public statement from Putin on the Jeddah meeting, does Rubio believe the Russians "are playing for time? Have you had any contact with them? ... Are they willing to accept the ceasefire unconditionally?"
Rubio explained where things stand with the Russians. "[W]e don't know the answer to the last question. That's what we want to know: whether they're prepared to do it unconditionally. We'll have contact with them today. There's already been contacts at different levels with counterparts, different members of the administration, and that'll continue." Another query was posed to Rubio concerning security guarantees for Ukraine, a sticking point.
Rubio responded, "[L]ike any country worldwide, Ukraine wants their long-term security. They want to make sure that this doesn't happen again. We all do. So, I think the question really is more about deterrence. Can Ukraine create a sufficient deterrent against future aggression, against future attack, against future invasion?" The secretary made the point that Ukraine's agreement was a first step, and the ball is definitely in Russia's court. From Kyiv's perspective, it has been here before, attempting to negotiate agreements for ceasefires and prisoner exchanges with the Russians, and Moscow has broken them. What's different now? That's easy – Donald Trump.
Barack Obama’s administration showed no interest in confronting Putin when Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014. Additionally, for the last three years, Joe Biden’s administration demonstrated it was no match for thwarting Putin's designs on Ukraine. President Trump has shown he is not Obama or Biden. Putin knows he has a formidable foe.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
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