The problem with the Democrats is that all too often they drink their own Kool-Aid, trust their own spin as if it were gospel, and insulate themselves from those they consider to be vulgar deplorables. All of this adds up to an inability to comprehend or accept reality. Thus, they see the Senate race in Texas between Democrat Beto O’Rourke and Republican Senator Ted Cruz and believe they are in the catbird seat. Democrats behold the mountain of money raised, along with a few friendly polls and posit that election day will carry Beto to victory and put Cruz out to graze the green pastures of Texas.
And that’s where they make their fatal mistake. Cruz isn’t going anywhere except back to the Swamp, and Beto – well, he could become another political footnote as fast as you can say Lone Star state or it just may be he’s using this race as a political platform for the future. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
Cruz Will Crush Him
The Democrats claim that Cruz is in real trouble due to the $38M raised from the hard-left elites in New York and California. But it’s more than likely this will amount to much ado about nothing on November 6. Yes, that’s a lot of dough to throw around, but if the Dems had accepted reality in 2016, they would understand that money alone does not a winner make on election day.
Just take a look at the fundraising disparity between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. The Associated Press reported that Trump raised some $340M including $66M of his own money while the Clinton coffers were bulging with an estimated $581M. History has proven that Mrs. Clinton would have been far better off skipping a few of those fundraising events in Edgartown, Massachusetts, in favor of some time with the ordinary folks in places like Michigan. Worshipping at the altar of the almighty dollar ultimately did Hillary no good.
Similarly, this money haul by O’Rourke has the fake news media buzzing with hope and anticipating a win. But the hard reality is that Beto will be beaten, and likely beaten badly, for a couple of reasons.
A canon of politics is name recognition. Even the left-leaning advocacy news outlet Vox admits that the El Paso congressman’s “biggest obstacle” is that “voters in Texas still don’t know who this Democrat is.” A Quinnipiac poll this summer found 43% of Texas voters essentially know zip about O’Rourke. Cruz has him beat hands down in this crucial category.
Then there’s the economy. Research website Oxford Bibliographies waxes extensively about what most political observers already know: “What holds economic voting theory together is the notion that voters pick candidates on the basis of their economic influence. In particular, incumbents who have presided over economic prosperity are rewarded at the polls, while those who are deemed responsible for decline are punished.”
With a reduction in the tax rate the U.S. economy has experienced record growth, a historic drop in unemployment and a booming – albeit shaky – stock market. The American citizenry is witnessing an economy that is on fire by just about every indicator known to man. Whether he was behind it all, a minor participant or a significant force, the credit for all this widespread economic upturn goes to the incumbent. People in America are pocketbook voters. Score another point for Cruz.
Next we come to the polls. Here’s where Democrats step in it big time. A recent Quinnipiac poll reveals a 6-point Cruz lead. This survey is significantly lower than a poll back in May which gave him an 11-point spread over O’Rourke. Thus, the Democrats take this to mean the race is tightening.
But a closer look shows a Real Clear Politics average of a 7-point lead for Senator Cruz. How can O’Rourke hoist himself to victory with these kinds of numbers? Quite simply, he can’t.
Finally, we come to the big kahuna – the political power of incumbency. And we’re not talking Cruz here – we’re speaking of the president showing up to rally the troops for his old opponent. Recently Trump tweeted and Liberty Nation reported, “I will be doing a major rally for Senator Ted Cruz in October. I’m picking the biggest stadium in Texas we can find.” You can bet there will be a lot of 10-gallon Texas and MAGA hats filling that space.
Texas political insider David Blackmon sums up the Cruz-O’Rourke race when he writes, “So what’s going to end up happening is that … the voters of Texas are going to re-elect Ted Cruz by a margin of 10-15% of the vote.”
That about says it all, folks. So, if the Democrats are counting on an O’Rourke victory this November they might as well be in La-La Land. But that doesn’t mean Beto will go quietly into the night. This whole wrangle in Texas just may be a launching pad for an O’Rourke presidential bid for 2020.
Remember that when it’s time for the high stakes game to get underway.