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Trump Out in Front
For weeks, the betting odds have played steadily at even money on Donald Trump to win the 2020 presidency, with Democrat contenders hovering around 7/2 and 4/1. But something has changed. Just last week, we saw a tightening of the odds for the incumbent, squeezing up to 5/6, while his opponents dropped by at least half a point each.
There are several likely factors at play here:
Just about every reasonable person now believes that Trump will not be impeached before the end of his first term.
Joe Biden continues to outperform every other Democrat in primary polling by between 13 and 18 points. But, his betting odds for winning the candidacy just keep on slipping. This could signify not that Biden has support, but that other contenders are just plain unlikable.
Democratic candidates are damaging each other. In their attempts to win the nomination, each one appears willing to slash and burn the careers and political histories of his or her opponents. Not only does this play poorly in the media, it means that they will all be weaker when it comes to facing off against Trump.
What to Watch For
If Trump can maintain his lead through the summer and into September, when the next Democrat debates roll around, we're going to see internecine warfare on an unprecedented scale. The hopefuls will tear each other to pieces for a bite at the apple.
Did Trump Just Win Democratic Debate?
Over two nights of debate, the Democratic Party contenders took chunks out of each other and flip-flopped on just about every principle they have ever held. Whether it was Joe Biden backtracking on abortion, or Kamala Harris trying to justify why she locked up over 1,500 people for marijuana whilst claiming to have been a smoker herself, it just got plain messy. The three frontrunners, Biden, Warren, and Harris, became targets for those who wish to make their names as "presidential candidates," leaving only one clear winner from the Bread and Circus events presented on CNN: Donald Trump.
The reality is that just about every candidate left the stage more damaged than when they mounted the steps. Only one person walked away relatively unscathed and that was Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), who – for the first time – is now at 17/1 to win the nomination, putting her ahead of Booker, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, and Gillibrand.
What to Watch For
September seems a long way off, but the candidates will be using the intervening time to drum up more funding from small donors across the nation. At present, only Bernie Sanders appears to have nationwide appeal, followed by Elizabeth Warren. The other contenders seem to be stuck with support from their home crowds only.
Baltimore Backlash Backfires
When President Trump made comments about Baltimore being rat-infested, the media pounced and expected that this would be the next big scandal to rock his administration. The key word on the lips of politicians and pundits alike was "racism." It seemed almost certain that accusations of racism would do even more damage to the president's approval rating (which is presently holding steady at 48%). But it didn't happen.
The latest Rassmussen polling shows that, this last week, support from black voters has actually increased by 4%. Initially thought to be a blip, the polling held steady and now sits 6% above the level of support the president recieved among black voters last year.
What to Watch For
It's hugely important to watch what happens with black voter polls over the next two weeks. If the numbers hold steady, it could mean that the Democrats will have to change their entire 2020 strategy. Exciting times, indeed.
Washington Whispers & Other Juicy Tidbits
Be on the lookout for:
It seems Tulsi Gabbard is going to get the press coverage she wants in the Democratic primaries as videos of her taking on Kamala Harris rack up the views. Despite suspiciously not appearing on trending lists, Gabbard was the most Googled name during the debates; "#KamalaHarrisDestroyed" was also doing the rounds.
Prepare to see the accusations of racism buried alongside the corpse of the Russian Collusion scandal as polling shows these tactics aren't damaging the Trump campaign. Likely upcoming "scandals" may include the president damaging the economy through China trade wars.
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