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So Long, Joe.
This last month has been a roller-coaster for contenders in the Democratic Party primary campaign. While the known outsiders have failed to rally against the firming up of the elusive "top-tier" candidate positions, something has been overlooked in terms of who is, ultimately, destined to face off against President Trump when the 2020 election comes due.
Since the very first debate, national polling has been giving former VP Joe Biden the leading edge. And why not. He has the name recognition, he has the experience in government, and despite his many public gaffes, he is seen as a credible, electable, threat to the incumbent.
Despite this, Joe Biden is facing a real problem, and as with almost everything, it comes down to a simple case of math. As Liberty Nation's Tim Donner wrote last week:
See, this all comes down to some relatively simple math. With Biden at 30%, the rest of the bloated field totals 70% – for 20 candidates. Thus, the central question is what happens when the field narrows, as it certainly will before the initial contest in Iowa, then after Iowa, then again after the second contest in New Hampshire, and in the weeks leading up to the Democratic convention? Where will the supporters of all those dropouts turn?
Senator Elizabeth Warren has been making some major advances in recent weeks, and she has the support of the disparate groups who so far are backing their personal favorites. As they begin to drop out, as they inevitably must, where will this support go?
Warren may presently be polling at between 14% and 18% nationally compared with Biden's solid 30%, yet when the Sanders campaign closes up shop (or even the other way around), the progressive voters will most likely not switch allegiance to the more mainstream Democrat contender.
What to Watch For
Elizabeth Warren is already firmly in the lead with cash money bettors. We can expect to see her maintain this top spot and for the polling to begin reflecting what the gamblers already suspect. It looks like support will flow not so much as a trickle, but as a torrent when the floodgate of failed presidential campaigns inevitably bursts forth.
An Unsuspecting Opposition
New Mexico is facing changes and challenges that could disrupt a once-steady political landscape. A Blue state that is set firmly in the sights of the incumbent president, could the Land of Enchantment be on the verge of tipping Red? With President Trump's recent campaign rally, we saw not just the "True Trumpers" turning out to support their chosen candidate, but also open Democrats who have decided that this time around, they may be voting against their own historical record.
Liberty Nation's Sarah Cowgill eloquently pointed out the reality facing Democrat hopefuls in a once-favored state:
New Mexico is experiencing the pains of a Democratic super-majority apparently bent on taking away the rural lifestyle, decimating the oil and gas industry, and torching the Second Amendment. In a few short months, New Mexico’s usual attitude of apathy at the polls changed into an organized effort to turn the state around. Its efforts have not gone unnoticed by the president.
At the New Mexico rally, President Trump drove home a message that is appealing to more and more dismayed Democrats. He said:
“The unemployment for Hispanic Americans is right now at the lowest level in the history of our country. Hispanic American poverty reached a brand-new all-time low in history. And after years of stagnation that you know very well, wages for Hispanic Americans are rising really fast, up nearly 8% since my election. Those are unheard-of numbers. And median income for Hispanic Americans surpassed $50,000 for the first time ever. That’s not bad.”
New Mexico is experiencing a political rebirth. But perhaps it goes even further. Perhaps the country is about to become born again to the original American Dream. Some have never given up on this vision of a land where they can turn hard work and determination directly into a better life for themselves and those that they love. And Hispanic Americans want in on the deal. They want safe streets, good schools, and the peace of mind that comes from a stable economy. But most of all, they want, just like everyone else, a future where the values they trach their children can lead to a life of honest reward and dignity. If this is the model being offered by President Trump, then he may just turn the state Red.
What to Watch For
All the polling shows that Americans of every variety place a high value on the value of work. If Democratic Party contenders want to appeal to those outside of progressive circles, they will have to begin talking about strategies and pathways to individual success for the electorate. We can expect to see at least a handful of outsider contenders positioning themselves as a "jobs candidate."
Washington Whispers & Other Juicy Tidbits
Be on the lookout for:
The situation with Ukraine may turn out to be an even bigger political animal than the Russiagate story. At present, the media is taking the position that Rudy Giuliani made the initial outreach in the hopes of gathering dirt on potential opposition Joe Biden. What has not received full attention yet is that this was at the request of the State Department. As this fact slowly seeps into the narrative, expect some major questions being asked of former Obama officials.
With ICE planning to resume family detentions near San Antonio, we can expect a redoubling of efforts to label the agency as an evildoer. Be prepared for both sides to try and make political capital from the others' reactions.
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