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Is the US Senate just over one month away from shifting to a Democrat majority? That’s the fear among many in the Grand Old Party as the high-stakes midterm elections approach – and one look at the latest polls coming out of the Carolinas is doing little to ease Republican concerns.
Midterm Mayhem: North Carolina
Roy Cooper, a Democrat, has a double-digit lead over Republican Michael Whatley in the pair’s race for the US Senate, according to a new YouGov poll sponsored by Catawba College’s Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service.
The poll, conducted in mid-September, found participants prefer Cooper to Whatley 47%-35%. The gap is even wider among self-identified independents, who favor the Democratic candidate. That matters in North Carolina, where independents make up the state’s largest voting bloc.
Dr. Michael Bitzer, who serves as the director of the Center for North Carolina Politics & Public Service at Catawba College, suggested the current trend is abnormal for the Tar Heel State.
“Typically, by this point in the campaign, North Carolina’s statewide elections will begin to tighten, as the respective partisan bases go to their party’s candidate,” Bitzer noted. “Among Democrats, 85% are supporting Cooper, while among Republicans, 79% are supporting Whatley. The deciding factor in North Carolina’s statewide elections, however, [is] the independents, and they are currently breaking to Cooper by 20 percentage points, 48% to 28%.”
The North Carolina Senate race is indeed leaning Democrat, according to the Cook Political Report, which said the race is expected to tighten even as “at least one GOP super PAC has begun drawing down their ad time here as the party triages its spending in more competitive races.” Notably, President Donald Trump won North Carolina by just over 3 points in 2024.
The Palmetto State
Things look a little better for the GOP in South Carolina than in its neighbor to the north, but not by much. Sen. Darline Graham – who was appointed to the upper chamber after her brother Lindsey Graham died suddenly in July – is neck-and-neck with her Democrat opponent, pediatrician Annie Andrews.
According to a new poll from the Trafalgar Group, Graham has a narrow lead over Andrews at 43.4% to 42.3%. More than half of the survey’s respondents identified as Republicans.
Despite Graham’s unorthodox candidacy and performance, the Cook Political Report still lists South Carolina as “likely Republican,” describing Graham as the “heavy favorite.” Cook had considered the race "solid Republican" but shifted it toward Democrats about a week ago. In a state Trump won by nearly 18 points in 2024, a GOP loss just two years later would amount to quite the pendulum swing.
Can Democrats Take the Senate?
A growing number of analysts believe the Democrats have a real shot at taking control of the US Senate in November. Decision Desk HQ says “Democrats are narrowly favored to win the Senate” as of Oct. 1; Inside Elections says the upper chamber is in play, and the Cook Political Report suggests the Senate battle is a “true toss up” as competitive races shift to the left.
Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) said he believes “everybody’s nervous about their races,” adding, “I’ve done polling in my own state, and it’s a pretty red state, but people all across the political spectrum are very unsettled.”
Unsettled is putting it mildly: President Trump faces low approval ratings as Americans wrestle with high costs at the grocery store and pain at the pump. Consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest point in more than a decade last month. It’s never good to be the party in power when Americans’ bank accounts are running dry.
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