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The midterms are rapidly approaching, and as races in traditionally red states drift into toss-up territory, Republicans are pouring millions into contests that were once considered easy wins.
“Everybody is tired. You see the poll numbers. Everybody is cranky about gas prices,” said New Jersey GOP strategist Jeanette Hoffman. “The party in power is playing defense. This is a referendum on the incumbents.”
Since just the beginning of September, three super political action committees (PACs) associated with President Donald Trump — MAGA Inc., Safety and Affordability PAC, and No Going Back PAC — have directed more than $163 million toward campaign advertising. Citing an Associated Press examination of AdImpact data, the NBC affiliate KARK reported that over $63 million has gone to states and congressional districts Trump carried by at least 10 points in 2024.
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But that’s just the tip of the spending iceberg.
Midterm Money
Texas has been a Republican stronghold for decades, but according to the Cook Political Report, the Lone Star State’s high-stakes Senate race is a toss-up between GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico.
Republicans are clearly feeling the pressure, having already spent or reserved close to $107 million on booking ads to boost Paxton’s campaign that will run through to Election Day. That level of spending comes in a state Trump carried by almost 14 points. Notably, this is reportedly almost four times what Democrats have so far spent.
One House race in Texas has recently moved to toss-up territory: Texas' 15th Congressional District contest between incumbent GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz and Democrat challenger Bobby Pulido. Cook noted that the district voted for Trump by 18 points in 2024, up from three points in 2020, but “public and private polling still shows this race is tied - or even Democrat Bobby Pulido, the Tejano singer-songwriter, with a lead.”
Sen. Jon Husted is also facing a difficult race in Ohio against former Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown; the GOP has spent over $152 million to support the appointed lawmaker’s campaign. Republicans have booked around $73 million on ads for a range of Republican races in Iowa, where Cook lists the Hawkeye State’s Senate race between Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson as a toss-up.
Since Aug. 1, Republicans have committed more than $110 million nationally in advertising for House districts that Trump handily won two years ago.
It’s All About the Cost of Living
Trump’s approval rating recently took a big dip to a record low of 32%, driven by an unpopular Iran war and high cost of living, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll. A Wall Street Journal survey painted a similar picture, putting the president’s approval rating at 37%. It's the weakest pre-midterm approval rating for any president in Journal polling dating back to 1990.
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A recent Fox News survey found that most voters view the economy negatively, pointing to the rising cost of necessities like gas and healthcare. But that’s not even the worst news for the GOP; the poll also found that 63% of voters say the economy has gotten worse under Trump, including roughly one in four Republicans.
After campaigning for his Republican colleagues, Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) acknowledged that Democrats appear to have an enthusiasm edge over the GOP in November. “You can’t look the American people in the eye and say, ‘Don’t believe your lying checkbooks,’” Kennedy said. “The cost of living increase is real.”
Republicans are fighting an uphill battle. If the polls are accurate, will millions in super PAC money even make a difference?
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