It was already an audacious move to try to push the majority of his legislative goals through both chambers in “One Big Beautiful Bill.” But the self-imposed July 4 deadline fast approaching and the House deadlocked as Wednesday night bled into Thursday, July 3 found President Trump seemingly in a weaker position. Holdouts in the GOP – and naturally with no support from House Democrats – have the future of this bill in doubt. While congressional members may be willing to pass a number of its features, the full-court press for a single act may have done Trump’s political capital more harm than good.
By Thursday morning, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) found himself, after a long night on the floor, still scrambling to flip a couple of “hard no” colleagues and convince more than half a dozen abstentions to get in the fight. eventually, he managed to drum up enough support to at least cue up a short debate period and the final vote. The final procedural hurdle was cleared 219-213, but as the “one-hour” debate period stretches on now more than thrice as long as ordered, it remains to be seen if all of those Republicans who allowed the process to inch forward will sign on to the final passage. Johnson can only afford to lose three Republican votes, and it’s going to take all of his – and Trump’s – persuasion skills to pass the text that came back from the Senate.
Has Trump Overcommitted?
The president has put more than just time and effort into getting this legislation settled. He has alienated or angered allies, including Elon Musk, and brought to a head long-simmering resentments with North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis and Kentucky Representative Thomas Massie, among others.
With a little more leeway on the timescale, such confrontations could have potentially been ironed out. However, the breakneck pace serves as more than just a timely and auspicious Independence Day piece of theater. In fact, getting this legislation signed and moving is likely more important to the members debating it than to Trump himself.
The 45th president appears to be gambling on a legacy beyond his own.
BBB or Bust
Tariffs, trade wars, and taxes do not exist in individual vacuums. They are all part of a larger economic model that Trump hopes will catapult the Republican Party to midterm success, and, ultimately, entrench the America First movement as the dominant force in the GOP.
Critics have – with some justification – argued that the spending in the BBB will add massively to the nation’s debt. Trump’s gamble is that the provisions will be an engine for growth that makes the increased outlays negligible – and his first-term economic results suggest he may be on the right track. But it will take time.
With the start of the 2026 midterm campaign period just a year away, passing this legislative agenda a few months down the line, or in piecemeal fashion, will not allow time for positive proof of whether the president has it right. His Democratic opponents will use the next year to sully the bill and its impacts, and the only true rebuttal comes in the form of data.
By passing the BBB now, congressional Republicans have a full 12 months to collect, collate, and package their midterm messaging strategy. If President Trump is correct, the financial situation will either be plainly positive or, at least, on an undeniable upwards trajectory. If he is wrong, his GOP partners can place the blame at his feet without worrying about getting him re-elected in 2028.
Congressional Republicans – should they pass the BBB soon – will either reap the rewards of Trump’s economic vision or have a patsy to sacrifice. Perhaps it is not so much a case of Donald Trump overcommitting to getting the bill passed, but rather that his congressional colleagues are not committed enough?
