In the wake of 34 guilty verdicts, the Trump campaign team would likely have been suffering night sweats and palpitations trying to fathom just how negatively the label “convicted felon” will impact their candidate. Just two weeks down the line since the former president took the hit, and the fallout has failed to land. In fact, much to the chagrin of the Fourth Estate, the slings and arrows of outrageous politicking appear to have energized rather than eviscerated Donald Trump’s hopes for re-election.
Post-Conviction Polls
Since the jury handed down the verdict on Trump, pollsters have been feverishly gathering data to determine what kind of hit 45 will receive from the electorate due to his new status as the first felon to run for office since Eugene Debs ran his prison campaign in 1920. The results are more than a little surprising and perhaps indicate that Trump’s prior support already had a guilty verdict baked in.
National: In both 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump failed to come first in any national polling – hence the shockwave of his successful presidential bid. He has been leading Joe Biden somewhat consistently since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israel, but what about since the damning court verdict on May 30?
Of the ten polls conducted from the date of conviction through to today (June 12), five have broken for Trump, four for Biden, and one tie. An average of these surveys hand Trump a lead of 0.4% - a figure very much in line with the Real Clear Politics average of 0.5% nationally. Interestingly, when only polls that count “likely Voters” (this being the gold standard preference), Trump’s lead increases to 0.6%.
But although the November election is a national contest, it is a handful of swing states that will determine the ultimate result.
Battleground: Polling the seven* key battleground states, the former president holds a lead in each. In Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, he edges out Joe Biden by more than the margin of error (5.3%, 5.3%, 4.8%, and 4.2% respectively). Combined with states that are almost certainly red, these four contests should be enough to put Trump over the all-important 270 Electoral College vote threshold.
In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, Trump still beats Biden, according to the RCP average, but by a much slimmer margin. If the incumbent president hopes to remain so, he will need to win all three of these states – and one of the other four.
Since Trump’s conviction, only one poll has not given him a lead, a MNS/Mitchell research survey that declared a statistical tie (Trump at 48.2% and Biden at 47.8%).
Five-Way: There are, of course, other contenders in the race. Jill Stein reclaiming the mantle for the Green Party, Cornel West as an independent, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., all hope to advance their causes. In reality, each of these hopefuls could prove a spoiler to one of the main party candidates.
When all five presidential candidates are matched up in the six polls conducted since the verdict, Donald Trump comes first in four, with two declaring a tie. This gives him an average lead of 2.3% - which is 0.3% ahead of the overall RCP average.
Trump’s to Lose?
A week is a long time in politics and five months is an eternity. There are several factors that could swing the election away from Donald Trump – most notably, Donald Trump himself. President Biden could still swing the electorate back to his side, and RFK’s nascent campaign could still implode. Each element means that current polling is an indicator rather than a prediction.
But one must wonder, if even a 34-count felony conviction cannot derail Trump’s campaign, what can?
*Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina.
