At this point, unless you’re in Quebec or the Maritimes, what is the point of staying in Canada? Whether the high taxes for mediocre public services or the incompetence in Ottawa after the last 11 years, the only things that make it worth residing in the Not-So-Great White North are Tim Hortons’ new cappuccino Timbits. For the almost 400,000 Alberta separatists, not even a lifetime supply of Double Doubles could entice them to remain in a place that has given 40 million people Trudeaumania and Carneynomics.
Alberta Separatists in the Stanley Cup Finals
They did it. Alberta separatists, officially named Stay Free Alberta, formally received close to 302,000 signatures, surpassing the 178,000 threshold. The number could be higher because more than 1,000 names are still in transit. Still, this means the initiative will trigger a referendum to leave the country as early as October.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith previously stated the process for a province-wide ballot would begin once the names were gathered and verified. While the Conservative premier has confirmed she does not support making an exit from the Dominion, Smith has argued that the federal Liberals are harming the oil-rich province, costing Alberta billions of dollars, and meddling in its affairs.
Mitch Sylvestre, the head of Stay Free Alberta, compared the group’s plight to hockey tradition.
"This day is historic in Alberta history. It’s the first step to the next step: we’ve gotten by Round 3, and now we’re in the Stanley Cup final,” he said. "This process shows that Albertans are engaged and this is an issue people want to have a say on. We look forward to your government receiving this clear expression of the democratic will of Albertans and advancing the next steps.”
Prime Minister Mark Carney, speaking to the press on May 5 as he announced his next governor general, touted the “rule of law.” The Liberal leader stated that there is still a judicial challenge before any actual vote takes place. Until then, he stated that it is his government's responsibility to work for Albertans and all Canadians.
This leads to a $64,000 question ($87,000 when converted to the loonie): Is there even an appetite for Albertans to pack up their things and take the oil and run?
Another Brexit Moment?
For anyone not following day-to-day Alberta politics and looking only at headline statistics, it would appear that separating from Canada would be a cakewalk. Aside from that weird time when a far-left New Democratic Party (NDP) premier was in office, the province of five million people has been mostly run by Conservatives and other right-leaning parties for the past century. The only place that is not conservative-leaning would be Edmonton, which is NDP-oriented.
So, if Albertans don’t want to be kicked around anymore by the Liberals, they would automatically support fleeing the coop and either join the United States or be its own nation, correct? Not exactly.
Support for separation has been flat for the past year. A Janet Brown Opinion Research-CBC News Calgary survey found that 27% would vote for separation, and 67% would vote against. These numbers have changed little from a year ago. Albertans are generally skeptical, with two-thirds saying separation is unlikely.
If Justin Trudeau were still prime minister, maybe the Alberta separatists would have more momentum. But Carney is quite popular across the country, even in the prairies.
Of course, stranger things have happened, from the British walking away from the European Union to President Donald Trump’s 2016 upset victory. What is certain, however, is that Conservative voters would need to head to the ballot box in vast numbers, as 57% of this base would vote to separate from the rest of Canada.
In the end, Sylvestre says he will do his best and live with the outcome. “We're going to go talk to every Albertan one at a time," he told the government-owned and operated news agency. "And by the time the vote comes, we'll have talked to a lot of Albertans. And, you know, maybe they'll understand what we're talking about and maybe they won't. And you know what, I've always said, this is a democratic process, so I'll live with the results."
Join America?
If approved, would there be an effort to become the 51st state? This might be an even tougher mountain to climb, as many Canadians spit out their Labatt Blue at the thought of joining the United States of America. But it would be Canada’s loss and America’s gain because Alberta produces almost four million barrels of oil and ten billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, representing 80% of the country's energy output. It is also a major producer of beef, wheat, iron, gold, and magnetite.
No wonder President Donald Trump salivated at the idea of Canada becoming the 51st state: Alberta’s vast natural resources.
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