The worst-kept secret in Tehran was that the number one exporter of terrorism would attack Israel. They have. In what has to be one of the most questionable military moves in the history of warfare, Iran launched a massive 181-ballistic-missile barrage against Israel beginning at 7:30 p.m. local time on Oct. 1. The attack was met with an Israel Defense Force (IDF) Arrow 2 and 3 anti-ballistic missile defenses along with air defense assets from the US and others.
Iran May Have Tried a Coordinated Attack
Though not unexpected, in addition to Iran's missile assault, Hezbollah launched rockets into northern Israel in response to Israel's limited ground campaign into southern Lebanon, and two terrorists went on a shooting spree in Tel Aviv that resulted in civilians dying. The terrorists were killed immediately. It’s not likely, but a case could be made that Hezbollah-Palestinian terrorists coordinated with Iran.
While once again, US officials are cautioning Israel not to escalate the situation with a disproportionate retaliatory strike, there is a narrative that Iran was under significant pressure internally after Israel took out Hamas's political chief, Ismail Haniyeh, who was staying in a safe house in Tehran. Additionally, Hezbollah was becoming more irritated with the Tehran leadership for not responding to Israel killing Hezbollah's leader and secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, and its senior advisor, Fuad Shukr.
Withstanding the ballistic missile onslaught, the IDF managed to shoot down all but a few of the incoming missiles. "Israeli military spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said the country's air defenses intercepted many of the incoming Iranian missiles, though some landed in central and southern Israel. Israel's national rescue service said two people were lightly wounded by shrapnel," the Associated Press reported. There was one casualty in the West Bank. An Iranian missile fell close to the town of Jericho, killing a Palestinian man.
Reports from the region said the two US missile destroyers that were involved in shooting down the Iranian ballistic missiles were the USS Buckley and the USS Cole. Remember, the USS Cole was the destroyer attacked and damaged during a port stop in Yemen by al Qaeda suicide bombers, killing 17 US sailors. The Cole is in a position to get some payback.
Tehran Believed Attacking Israel Was Required
Iran probably felt it had to do something. However, at the same time, the Iranian leadership wants to avoid the devastating retaliatory response Israel is capable of doling out. Consequently, though the long-range ballistic missiles reached deep throughout Israel, minor damage was done. But Iran did do something, albeit a gesture. That calculous may prove to be a very dangerous move. When Israel retaliated in the Spring, it demonstrated it could reach into Iran and destroy an air defense site, and there was little Iran could do to stop it. It was a message that could easily be reiterated.
As The New York Times explained:
"Israel has a freer hand to respond forcefully to Iran's missile barrage on Tuesday than it did in April, security analysts and former officials say, when its retaliation for the previous Iranian attack was a largely symbolic strike against an air-defense installation in Iran. In April, Israel was worried that issuing too intense of a response would prompt Iran to order its proxy militias — particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon — to retaliate extensively.
Now, Hezbollah is fighting for its existence and losing. Whatever fear Israel had of Hezbollah being a threat – if Israel should be too strong in its response against Iran this time – that fear has been overcome by Israel's pre-emptive destruction of Hezbollah's capacity to carry out attacks. Israel's ground assault on Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is keeping the terrorist organization busy.
Whether the IDF will retaliate immediately is not clear. As US Army retired four-star general Jack Keane told Fox News, "The main effort Israel is conducting right now is where it's in Lebanon. They've got a ground incursion going on and they've got [a] systematic campaign to take down as many leaders as they can and as [many] launchers and missile and other infrastructure that they have there. That is their main effort," Keane said.
The general also explained that the Biden-Harris administration's predictable response is, "What the United States wants to do is stop all the shooting in Gaza, in Lebanon. Just stop it, stop it with the Houthis, and take the status quo. The status quo is totally unsatisfactory to the Israelis." As ineffective as the US policy of saying "don't" has been, the US national security officials appear committed to continuing that refrain.
The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliate.
