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Can the GOP Win in Fraud-Ravaged Minnesota?

Two major races are shockingly close.

Elizabeth Lawrence
Elizabeth Lawrence
Sep 18, 2026
Can the GOP Win in Fraud-Ravaged Minnesota?

(Photo by Stephen Maturen/Getty Images)

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Minnesota is reliably blue – right? Maybe not. A new poll shows Republican candidates in two major races – one for governor and the other for US Senate – are nearly tied with their left-wing opponents. Of course, both races are far from over, and Minnesota hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2006 or a grand old Senator since 2002. But with rampant fraud plaguing the Land of 10,000 Lakes, is Minnesota finally ready to go red?

Red-Curious Minnesota

A poll held between September 14 and 15 by the market research firm co/efficient found that Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a member of the Minnesota Democratic–Farmer–Labor Party, is neck-and-neck with Republican Michele Tafoya in the race for US Senate. The survey of 833 likely general election voters revealed that 43% of participants would cast a ballot for Flanagan if the election took place today. Tafoya, on the other hand, earned the approval of 42% of respondents. Just 11% said they were undecided.

The same poll found Minnesota’s race for governor is also remarkably close for the typically deep-blue state, with 47% of respondents throwing their support behind Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar and 45% indicating they would vote for Republican Lisa Demuth. An additional 9% of respondents remained undecided.

So, what’s behind the apparent shift to the right? Well, the answer may be found a little further down in co/efficient’s poll. Question 11 asked, “Which of the following do you consider the most important issue facing the country?” The top response: government corruption.

The Land of 10,000 Frauds

Minnesota has been under the public’s — and law enforcement’s — microscope for months following the exposure of rampant welfare fraud scandals involving potentially billions of taxpayer dollars. The revelations led to the creation of the Trump administration’s new Task Force to Eliminate Fraud, led by Vice President JD Vance. Federal agents also raided nearly two dozen businesses – most of which were connected to Somali immigrants – in the North Star State. But the business owners aren’t the only ones drawing unwanted attention.

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As Liberty Nation News’ Graham J. Noble previously reported, “Minnesota Democrats are under the spotlight, either for their possible involvement or their lack of competence in allowing such widespread fraud on their watch.” Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, state Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Somali immigrant Rep. Ilhan Omar are among those facing intense scrutiny. The pressure on Minnesota Democrats became so intense earlier this year that Walz even abandoned his bid for a third term as governor.

A recent poll from KSTP/SurveyUSA found that Minnesotans believe tackling fraud must be a top priority for the North Star State’s future governor, senator, and attorney general. If Minnesotans truly believe fighting fraud is the most important issue facing the state, then it’s reasonable that many may be considering an alternative to the party that has controlled Minnesota for decades – and potentially allowed fraud to run rampant. Whether they knew about it or not, it happened on their watch. Still, Republicans are undoubtedly facing an uphill battle: Old habits die hard, and despite the glaring issues, Minnesotans may not have it in them to flip from blue to red. The GOP also controls the White House and Congress, and midterm elections almost always favor the party out of power.

4 Questions

The story, in brief

1How close are Minnesota's 2026 Senate and governor races?

A co/efficient poll found both major Minnesota races are very tight. In the US Senate contest, Democrat Peggy Flanagan led Republican Michele Tafoya 43% to 42%, with 11% undecided. In the governor's race, Democrat Amy Klobuchar led Republican Lisa Demuth 47% to 45%, with 9% undecided.

2Why could Republicans be gaining ground in Minnesota?

The polling suggests voter concern about corruption may be helping Republicans in a state that usually votes Democratic. In the same co/efficient survey, government corruption was the top answer when likely voters were asked about the most important issue facing the country. The piece argues Minnesota's recent fraud scandals may be pushing some voters to consider an alternative.

3What fraud scandals are putting Minnesota Democrats under pressure?

Minnesota has faced welfare fraud scandals involving potentially billions of taxpayer dollars, drawing scrutiny from the public and law enforcement. The Trump administration created a new Task Force to Eliminate Fraud led by Vice President JD Vance, and federal agents raided nearly two dozen businesses in the state. Governor Tim Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, and Representative Ilhan Omar are among those facing intense scrutiny.

4What happens next for Minnesota Republicans and Democrats?

Republicans appear to have an opening, but the races remain far from decided in a state that has not elected a Republican governor since 2006 or a Republican senator since 2002. The piece says Republicans still face an uphill battle because Minnesota has long been blue. It also notes that midterm elections almost always favor the party out of power, while the GOP currently controls the White House and Congress.

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About the Author

Elizabeth Lawrence

Elizabeth Lawrence

Editor and Author

Elizabeth is an author and editor at Liberty Nation. Liz has over a decade of experience in media and journalism, including work with American Military News, PBS, and NBC Montana. Liz also wrote “Homesteading Kids,” a children’s book inspiring self-sufficient living and practical skills. Connect with Liz on X @lizlawrence2111
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