You may think this is either a joke or a fantasy, but here goes: Republicans are in a good position to capture the governorship of California. How is this even possible, you might say, in the largest and most famously left-wing state in the nation? Well, with the top Democratic vote-getter having now dropped out of the race and resigned from Congress in disgrace, a scenario that was already surprisingly favorable for the GOP has become even more promising.
California Dems in Disarray
"I am deeply sorry to my family, staff, and constituents for mistakes in judgment I've made in my past," Rep. Eric Swalwell wrote on social media following revelations of severe sexual misconduct. "I will fight the serious false allegation made against me.” He went on to say, “However, I must take responsibility and ownership for the mistakes I did make." By claiming falsehoods amid what he essentially admits are credible allegations, Swalwell is effectively following in the footsteps of ex-President Bill Clinton, who famously set a new standard for the word false. The central premise of Clinton’s parsing was that if, for example, he was accused of doing something at 4:15 pm when it actually happened at 4:10, he would label the story false. One assumes that Swalwell’s combative tone in promising to “fight the serious false allegation made against me” will follow the same methodology.
The ugliness surrounding Swalwell, first detailed by the San Francisco Chronicle, is so severe that almost every California Democrat who backed him immediately withdrew the endorsement. But even before Swalwell was outed, Golden State Democrats were in a fix. While two Republicans are running for governor, nine Democrats — now eight following Swalwell’s withdrawal — threw their hats in the ring, slicing the substantial liberal vote into small pieces and providing the GOP with a pathway to the governor’s mansion. That is, unless the Democratic herd can be culled. Indeed, it is now evident that unless some of the Democratic candidates are persuaded to leave the race, California could realistically elect its first GOP governor since Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2006.
Rumble in the Jungle
The fact that the GOP is highly competitive in this race for governor should not be interpreted as some indication that the state has moved rightward. It has not. Rather, the simple mathematics of the state’s “jungle primary” on June 2 stand in the way of Democrats retaining the governorship after eight years of Gavin Newsom. The two Republican candidates, former Fox News personality Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, are receiving a combined average of just 30% in the 10 latest polls chronicled by The New York Times. But with the Democrats splitting their vote nine ways, Hilton has finished on top of the pack in seven of those ten polls by an average of 4%. Meanwhile, with Swalwell gone, the Democratic machine in Sacramento must urgently sort out the remaining contenders. But among the eight remaining candidates, only billionaire leftist Tom Steyer, who flopped as a presidential candidate in 2020, has crested 20% in a handful of polls. Not one of the other hopefuls has yet to attract significant support.
Hilton is a highly articulate former host on Fox News with a libertarian bent and the added benefit, or perhaps drawback, of a distinct British accent. Bianco is a longtime law enforcement officer, focusing his campaign on the decline in public safety and the state’s astronomical cost of living. In the end, neither would come close to winning a majority were it not for the primary system adopted by the Golden State that places all candidates of both parties before the voters, with the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advancing to the November general election. Thus, what matters is whether Republicans can claim the top two spots and guarantee a GOP governor and, if not, determine which GOP candidate might be more electable against a weak Democrat. Hilton has had the upper hand, aided in large part by his endorsement from President Donald Trump.
Republicans have long known that it would take a perfect storm to win the governorship of California. But at least at this moment, some of the elements are in place. A primary system that works to their advantage, a divided field of undistinguished Democrats, and the odious scandal surrounding the former frontrunner have placed the GOP in a most unexpected position. It is now a matter of whether they can outmaneuver the reeling Democrats and capitalize on their good fortune.
