If you’re wondering how Joe Biden could have possibly beaten Donald Trump in the 2020 election, you aren’t alone. For the Democrats, it was a given. Of course, Biden would win because Trump is Literally Hitler™ (or, if not the actual reincarnation, at least just as bad), and what kind of monster would vote for Hitler? But for those who live in the land of facts, the math just doesn’t seem to add up. What would it take for the occasionally half-lucid Democrat with the troublesome political history to derail the Trump train? So many factors would have to fall in place just perfectly that one might have expected a mystical alignment of celestial bodies to herald the historic event.
That’s one possibility. There’s also that rampant fraud just about everyone not suffering from late-stage TDS suspects. Certainly the hypothesis that someone – or rather a great many someones – cheated for Biden requires fewer mental maneuvers and unlikely circumstances than the other possibility.
So, with the stars seeming to line up for Trump rather than against him leading up to the election, is it even statistically possible that Biden beat him sans shenanigans? According to pollster Patrick Basham, it is – but it isn’t very damned likely.
The Stubborn Facts
As Liberty Nation’s Tim Donner recently wrote, “[f]acts are famously stubborn things.” Basham has curated quite the list of stubborn facts that show just how improbable Biden’s win really is. For starters, Trump did extremely well in the 2020 election – far better than he did in 2016. The president received 11 million more votes this year, which is the third largest rise in support of any incumbent – and far more votes than any other incumbent seeking re-election in the past. In fact, no incumbent has ever lost re-election after increasing his vote count even by a little, and Obama was easily re-elected in 2012 after he lost 3.5 million votes.
Trump got a bigger share of the minority vote than any other Republican since 1960 and enjoyed a 50% increase in black votes over 2016. How did Biden do with the black vote? He dropped well below 90%, which generally results in the Democrat losing the race. The Hispanic vote is crucial for a Democrat to win as well, and Trump enjoyed 35% of that bloc, dangerously close to eating into the 60% Basham says Democrats need in order for a win to be possible.
Then there’s the county map. Trump won more votes than any candidate in the history of U.S. elections, second only to Biden in the very same election – or so we’re told. Yet Biden somehow beat this by taking only 17% of the counties in the nation. Only in just the right cities – at just the right time – did Biden see the overwhelming rally in the black vote that allegedly propelled him to victory.
Of course, it just so happens those cities lie deep under Democrat control in the very swing states Biden needed to win in order to oust Trump. Coincidence? Let’s look at some of the unusual activities reported in those cities:
While Trump was comfortably ahead of Biden, counting was halted late on election night in these states. Observers were allegedly removed from the counting stations in these specific cities. When counting resumed without the observers, Biden made a miraculous comeback, with hundreds of thousands of votes tallied for him, many of which showed up late.
Many absentee ballots were not properly verified. Signatures weren’t matched and envelopes were destroyed. In Pennsylvania alone, 23,000 absentee ballots had impossible postal return dates and another 86,000 had dates so unlikely that they’re highly suspect, yet a historically low number of these suspect ballots – as few as 1% or even 0% in some key counties – were rejected. Basham quotes political analyst Robert Barnes to explain the logical conclusion here: “If the states simply imposed the same absentee ballot rejection rate as recent cycles, then Trump wins the election.”
Then there are missing votes. Also in Pennsylvania, 47 USB cards from Delaware County, holding 50,000 votes, have disappeared. Another coincidence?
It Ain’t Just the Polls
Basham pointed out that media and academic polls have an impressive 80% accuracy rate in predicting winners – and that’s including the embarrassing 2016 miss. Despite this, he prefers non-polling metrics, like party registration trends, how the candidates fared during primaries, the number of individual donations, and the enthusiasm for each candidate shown in opinion surveys. Unlike the more popular polls, these trends have a 100% success rate, historically. Even in 2016, when the media and academia predicted that Trump would lose, these metrics foretold his win. They did so again in 2020 and very strongly.
“So if we are to accept that Biden won against the trend of all these non-polling metrics,” Basham told Mark Levin, host of Life, Liberty & Levin, “it not only means that one of these metrics was inaccurate … for the first time ever, it means that each of these metrics was wrong for the first time and at the same time as all the others.”
Did the Stars Align – or Are the Dems All Lost in Space?
Sure, each of these very specific and unusual circumstances could occur, but it would have required all of them to happen, not just a few, to result in a Biden win. Like all the stars and planets in the galaxy lining up to form a cosmic arrow pointing directly at Biden. As the saying goes, anything is possible. But when confronted with two conflicting explanations for the same thing, the simpler one – the one that requires fewer special circumstances and less creativity – tends to be the answer. At the very least, it demands a thorough investigation before opting for the incredibly more complex and historically unusual option.
Read more from James Fite.