Abortion on the Ballot: The Dobbs Backlash Strikes Again

Some say the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision to overturn Roe v. Wade cost Republicans their decisive victory in the 2022 midterm elections. However much it contributed to the results, it certainly didn’t help. But breaking the red wave wasn’t the only ramification of that historic ruling. Citizens in five states voted on ballot issues to either protect abortion access or restrict it – and in all five states, the pro-life movement lost.

Pro-Choice Wins

The voters of Michigan chose 56.66% to 43.34% to approve an amendment to the state's constitution that explicitly protects “reproductive rights,” abortion included, to ensure the state’s pre-Roe ban can’t go back into effect. Vermonters passed a similar amendment to their own state constitution, but by a wider margin. Just 61% of the vote is reported, but currently, it sits at 77.2% in support. In an interesting aside, 89% of folks in the Green Mountain State voted to ban slavery … yes, in 2022. That residents of a US state had to address the legality of slavery in the 21st century is so absurd, one wonders if the 11% who voted against it hoped to usher in the institution’s return or if they were simply the only ones who recalled which century they were living in.

In the Golden State, few would be surprised to find that the proposal to enshrine a right to elective abortion passed with two-thirds of the vote. California still only has about half its precincts reporting, but the gap between the yeas and the nays is almost as big a number as the total votes against the proposition at this point, and it seems unlikely tabulating the other half will change things.

Pro-Life Losses

In Kentucky, a proposal to amend the constitution simply to state that it doesn’t explicitly protect abortion – hardly a restrictive measure in of itself – failed. Despite having a massively Republican General Assembly (The GOP dominates in the state senate 29-8 and the House 75-25), Kentucky has its fair share of “pro-choice” voters. Democrat Andy Beshear squeaked by 49.2%-48.8% with just over 5,000 votes to beat Republican Matt Bevin for governor in 2019. Beshear later vetoed an abortion ban passed by the General Assembly, only to be overruled by both chambers. The constitutional amendment was voted down by a 52.37% majority.

Perhaps a more shocking development was the fate of Montana Referendum No. 131, which would require medical care for any infant born alive, even after an abortion attempt. Republicans control the state’s senate 31-19, the house 67-33, and the governor’s mansion. Still, when a measure to protect the life of an already-born infant came before the people themselves, it failed 52.6% to 47.4%.

Abortion on the Ballot

All in all, the turnout can only be described as a total loss for the pro-life crowd. Emboldened by their victory, the abortion activists are already planning to expand their influence for 2024. “Let’s take this show on the road. Let’s go to states, and let’s prove that we can win in some challenging environments,” said Anthony Romero, executive director of the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU). “Let’s put this to the people.”

It's unclear what states might see this issue on the ballot again in two years, but Romero did tell eager reporters that his group is looking at several red states as potential targets, naming Ohio and Florida explicitly. Kelly Hall, executive director of the Fairness Project, which advocates for progressive causes, said her organization is looking at those states as well, along with Missouri, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and South Dakota.

How do those who oppose abortions explain the losses? By pointing out they were outspent. “It’s the biggest concern that we have in the pro-life movement – that we gain our advantage that we find through candidates debating the issue – where we don’t have that advantage when we’re outspent 10 to 1 in a referendum. It’s a serious problem,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of SBA Pro-Life America, explained to reporters on Wednesday. She worries that what she considers misleading messaging, similar to what she saw in support of California’s ballot measure, will appear in other states in future elections.

Are voters being bamboozled by big-spending abortion lobbies playing fast and loose with the truth? Was the overturning of Roe v. Wade too extreme for them? Or is it as the Democrats say – that redistricting has resulted in state legislatures misrepresenting the will of the people? Whatever the case, the issue may be coming to a ballot near you in 2024.