Americans have been unintentionally sorting themselves for decades, moving to communities of like-minded people and turning states predominantly conservative or Democrat. But in the last 20 years, more people have moved from blue to red states than from red to blue: nine million more, to be precise. Tired of rising crime and unaffordable housing costs, Americans have been moving from California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and other blue states and finding homes in red states such as Texas, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. If migration patterns continue as they have over the last two years, winning future elections might be more difficult for Democrats.
Red States Could See Big Changes in 2030
Binyamin Appelbaum, lead writer on economics and business for the editorial board at The New York Times, recently analyzed data covering two decades of migration patterns. By his estimation, if people continue to relocate as they have in the last two years, California will lose four electoral votes after the 2030 census, New York will lose three, and Illinois two. Other blue states, such as Minnesota, Oregon, and Rhode Island, will each lose one electoral vote. All 12 would go to the red states people moved to and be locked in until 2040.
The impact of these relocations would affect not only the Electoral College, though. “Using the new data [from the Census Bureau], the Brennan Center estimates that if trends of the last two years continue, the South will gain nine seats in the reapportionment of congressional districts after the next census — the largest single-decade gain for the region in history,” said Michael Li, senior counsel in the Democracy Program at the Brennan Center for Justice, a nonpartisan law and policy organization, in a recent article.
Florida and Texas could each gain four seats, maybe even five for the Lone Star State, and North Carolina could also add a seat. “Meanwhile,” said Li, “California and New York, which have seen significant population outflows this decade, are projected to lose four and two districts respectively.” Illinois, Minnesota, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Wisconsin could each lose a seat, too.
But why are so many Americans flocking to conservative-led states? Some seek manufacturing jobs or tech hubs, claims Appelbaum, but most appear to be teachers, police officers, and dentists, people searching for a lower cost of living. However, Americans have been dividing themselves for decades, culturally and politically. Journalist Bill Bishop, author of the 2008 book The Big Sort: Why the Clustering of Like-Minded America Is Tearing Us Apart, told NPR in 2022, “They are still sorting themselves in ways that end up that places are increasingly Republican or increasingly Democratic.” The problem is that people in groups with similar views “tend to become more extreme over time in the way that they're like-minded,” Bishop told NPR. This means fewer people gravitate to the middle of the political spectrum, making politics “less about solving our problems” and more “about cheering for our side,” said Bishop. “And so we’re stuck.”
Some Americans Are Moving On
Not only are droves of Americans moving but also disaffiliating from the Democratic Party. In Joe Biden’s first two years as president, a million voters throughout 43 states changed their registration from Democrat to Republican. Voters appear to be washing their hands of a party they no longer recognize.
Just ask outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (WV), a former Democrat turned independent. He left the Democratic Party earlier this year because, as he recently told CNN’s Manu Raju in an interview, “The D-brand has been so maligned from the standpoint of, it’s just, it’s toxic. [T]he party used to focus on kitchen-table issues such as ‘good job, a good pay,’ but [he] claimed Democrats are now too worried about sensitive social issues, such as transgender rights,” reported CNN.
The Democratic Party might need as much work to fix itself as the states and cities it runs. Blue states have to do more than increasing affordability. Costly housing, failing public education, excessive taxes, high crime, rising homelessness, and allowing cities to be safe havens for illegal immigrants are just a handful of problems some Democrat-led states will need to tackle in order to create an environment in which more people want to live. And if the left is confused about what Americans want, it seems pretty simple to look at what the red states are doing and act accordingly. But perhaps the more difficult part for Democrats and blue states will be convincing voters they’ve changed their policies because they care about Americans – and it’s not just a ploy to win votes and draw new residents.
