Winning the House: Why Dems Should Be Careful What They Wish For

Political parties of all stripes are out for one thing above all else: victory. They will do whatever it takes to win elections and control as much power as possible. And while this will, as always, be top of mind in every move made by Republicans and Democrats as the 2026 midterm elections approach, gaining control of the House and blowing up the GOP trifecta may not prove to be all it’s cracked up to be for the Democrats. 

Desperate to regain some of the power stripped from them in 2024, the Dems are understandably chomping at the bit to regain the congressional bully pulpit. And while Republicans are favored to maintain control of the Senate, Democrats are the odds-on, morning-line favorites to regain control of the House of Representatives, currently enjoying a 10-point advantage over Republicans on a generic congressional ballot, according to the latest poll from Emerson College. But the reason for their likely return to power in the lower chamber has little to do with their own merits. They remain at the lowest ebb of popular approval since the metric was first introduced, below 30% in several recent surveys. But midterms have always been grievance elections, with the out-party, no matter how unpopular, benefiting from high turnout among voters dissatisfied with the ruling party. 

How Would House Democrats Use Their Newfound Power?

Even after their wipeout in 2024, there have been zero signs or suggestions that the Democrats intend to renounce the far-left, Trump-focused agenda that voters thoroughly rejected 18 months ago. If anything, the likes of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Bernie Sanders, Zohran Mamdani, and their fellow travelers on the socialist left are on the ascent, having seized the spotlight, if not the heart, of a party banished to the back side of the desert not so long ago. 

Once in power, we can be sure the Democrats will continue to attack Trump unceasingly. They will dedicate more taxpayer funding to a failed healthcare system of their own exclusive making, throwing good money after bad. But other than demonizing the president, opposing his every policy, and sticking another band-aid on the Affordable Care Act while effectively kicking the can down the road, what ideas has the left writ large advocated upon their return to power? What agenda are they touting beyond a laser focus on what they believe are the execrable excesses of Trump? Other than investigating and impeaching Trump, which they will likely do to satisfy their predominant left flank, will they limit their focus to procedural votes designed to make the GOP look bad? Knowing any legislation they pass will be dead on arrival in the Senate or White House, how will House Democrats invest the two years of control granted to them? How will they resist a president with little concern about those who oppose his audacious agenda?

While they will undoubtedly celebrate on Election Night, here is the principal reason the Democrats should hardly rejoice if the voters return them to control of the House. If the GOP were to continue in control of both chambers and the White House, anything and everything that goes wrong in the run-up to the 2028 presidential election would be blamed on Trump and Republicans. Democrats would get a relatively free pass because they would have had no control of the levers of power for four straight years, and could thus have a field day picking apart every move that failed to meet with public approval. They would also have plenty of time to re-cast their public image and convince the voters that they are no longer the woke party of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, assuming the former VP makes the smart choice not to run again, though that is hardly a certainty.

But if the Democrats regain control of the House, they will generate something every opponent craves to exploit - a record. Given the likelihood that such a record will reflect many of the same values that cost them power in the first place, one wonders how they might intend to recast their image, if at all. Will they be driven principally by disciplined posturing for the presidential race ahead, or will they be unable to resist rinsing and repeating their full-frontal assault on a man not even running for president again?

Democrats have for a full decade proven incapable of fighting off the most virulent symptoms of Trump Derangement Syndrome. Even though Trump won’t be on the ballot in 2028, the entire country would be stunned if the Dems flipped the script and advocated for the 80% side of those 80-20 issues that Trump has thrown in their faces. No, they might try to tone down their rhetoric a bit, but their agenda promises to center around what it has always been in the last decade: scorched-earth attacks on a man they despise with every fiber of their collective being. 

Leftists Can’t Help Themselves

The Charlie Kirk assassination, even more than the three attempts on the life of President Trump, left the near-indelible impression that the left has, if anything, doubled down on its extremism. When leftists far and wide either celebrated or pointedly refused to lament the most shocking public murder since John F. Kennedy, the possibilities of even minimal reconciliation between the warring sides all but evaporated. Widespread assertions by Trump-deranged keyboard warriors that the latest assassination attempt on Trump was staged by the president only confirms the hopelessness of reaching agreement with hardened, mainstreamed extremists – even on matters as weighty and morally unambiguous as whether politically motivated murder is acceptable.

It is hard to fathom, but if the Democrats were to defy the odds and continue as the minority in the House after the upcoming midterms, they might well be better off come 2028. Freed from any responsibility for what happens over the next two and a half years, they might convince an open-minded electorate, whether true or not, that they have moderated and tacked to the center. But by regaining control of the House, they would reveal, or re-establish, just how far to the left the center of gravity has moved in their party and once again provide the basis for repudiation by the voters in 2028.