On Sunday, September 15, the Secret Service thwarted what was most likely a second attempt on Donald Trump’s life. It’s believed that the would-be shooter didn’t get a shot off, but he was hiding in the bushes pointing a scoped AK-47 at Trump; his intentions certainly seem clear enough. What isn’t quite clear, however, is why – or, for that matter, how – he planned to shoot the former president from 300-500 yards away with that particular weapon. The AK-47 may be the world’s most famous firearm, but a precision weapon of pinpoint accuracy it is not.
AK-47 – An Odd Choice
According to reports, the man aiming at Trump at the golf course was 300-500 yards away from the former president. He had an AK-47 with a scope – though it probably wasn’t an actual AK-47, as the AKM (with the M meaning modernized) quickly replaced the ’47 model. So when people say AK-47, the vast majority of the time, they’re talking about an AKM or some other variant. In any case, this weapon fires the 7.62x39mmR (Russian) cartridge. It’s a fairly big bullet that does a lot of damage upon impact – but it doesn’t travel very far, and it’s notoriously inaccurate even at shorter ranges. Simply put: If you want to make a 300–500-yard precision shot, the AK-47 is an unusual choice.
So, just how bad a choice was it? Let’s look at some ballistic data for the caliber. When the standard AK round leaves the muzzle, it’s traveling at about 2350 or so feet per second. But because of the size of the bullet and the relative lack of power in the cartridge compared to other rounds of similar bullet weight, it loses both velocity and altitude rather quickly.
At 300 yards – the closest law enforcement estimate the man was to Trump – the bullet would have dropped just over two feet and be moving almost 1,000 feet per second slower. Move out to 400 yards, and the bullet falls a whole five feet and is only moving about half as fast. Let’s take a moment to really let that sink in. If a six-foot-tall man shoulders a rifle, that puts the gun at about five feet off the ground. If he shoots straight ahead across level ground, the bullet hits the dirt at about 400 yards. At 500 yards, the AK round is moving at less than half the velocity from when it was fired, and a shooter would have to aim ten feet above the target just to hit it.
The World’s Most Notorious Firearm
The AK and its variants were cheap, simple, and easy to use. They are also nearly indestructible. Sink an AK in the mud or freeze it in ice? Beat on it a bit and it’ll fire just fine. Drop it in the sand? Shake it out and start shooting. They weren’t very accurate – but neither were most of the shooters who toted them. The Soviet Union gladly distributed this weapon around the Communist world, and it quickly became the gun of choice for guerrillas, terrorists, rebels, warlords, and criminals. Even in Hollywood, it’s the iconic “bad guy” gun (although there’s a case to be made that La La Land also opts for the Uzi 9mm) – and that’s perfectly fair; no other firearm in the world has killed as many people as the AK.
But the world’s most popular rifle achieved that impressive statistic through its use in the relatively close-quarters combat seen in jungles, urban centers, and terrorist ambushes and executions – not 300-500 yards across a golf course with just one single target in the sights.
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