What the Media Ignores About the 2024 Spread

The potential rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is being billed as a clash of the Titans, two powerhouse political operators set on a 2024 collision course. And why not? It sells papers and gets clicks. But this match-up is far from a done deal. It seems the Fourth Estate is engaged in a distraction exercise to convince the voting public that the presidential table is set and that the guests have RSVP’d. However, a number of factors could easily derail the well-presented Hobson’s Choice.

Don’t Underestimate Kamala’s Unpopularity

When Biden finally announced, in 2020, who his running mate would be, he was lauded as all things wise and wonderful for choosing then-Senator Kamala Harris. He would merely be a “transition candidate,” ultimately handing over the office to someone who ticked all the progressive boxes – despite a disastrous primary reception. Yet Harris has failed to grow into her role. She has failed as the “Border Czar,” been mocked by millions for her inability to concisely make a point, and – in the eyes of many – she has shown herself to be too thin-skinned for the rigors of the job.

President Biden’s age and cognitive impairment mean that, should he be re-elected, Ms. Harris would almost certainly either assume the mantle in an official capacity or take on an outsized level of responsibility. In 2020, Harris was considered an asset to Joe Biden; in 2024, it would be a generous soul that does not see her as a liability.

Aggregate polling has the VP at least 16 points underwater – as unpopular as Donald Trump. When voters hit the polls, they may well be asking themselves if that “transition” Biden spoke of is really in their best interests.

No One Likes Joe

But even if the Democrat ringmasters can keep VP Harris – or the threat of President Harris – under wraps and stop her defining the campaign through word salad platitudes, the president himself is still the party’s greatest liability.

Whether it is an endless series of embarrassing gaffes, outright lies about his personal history, or short-tempered outbursts mixed with ever-increasing confusion, Joe Biden is hardly the beloved leader he is portrayed as in the left-leaning media. In fact, according to two recent polls, just 26% of voters want to see Biden on the 2024 ballot; more than half of Democrat voters want him to throw in the towel.

During the 2020 election, Biden had the luxury of being an unknown quantity. He could compare his hopes and dreams to a concrete track record of a sitting president mired in a once-in-a-century pandemic. More than two years into his presidency and the economy appears to be in tatters, and two-thirds of the nation believes it is on the “wrong track.”

Those Pesky Independents

As outright party support for Democrats and Republicans dwindles, the rise of the independent voter may just be the hottest polling topic in town. But such electoral weight does not bode well for either Trump or Biden. A Marist poll in April suggests just 36% of independents support the current president. That’s quite the blow considering it was largely this voting block that won him the White House in 2020.

According to 2020 exit polls, independents in Arizona swung for Joe Biden by 11 points – a reversal on the three-point edge Trump garnered in 2016. However, an investigation by the New York Times reveals that this important demographic may not be ready to throw their support behind him this time around.

Polling aggregation shows that Joe Biden is underwater with this group by 26 points, with average favorability of just 33%. Mr. Trump should not, however, be counting his chickens just yet. A PBS survey reveals that a whopping 68% of independents don’t want 45 to run for office again. The road to the presidency is increasingly becoming a game of minute advantages and edges, and it may well be the fringes that decide 2024 rather than the party faithful.

A 2024 Dynamic Duo?

There appears to be hope on the left that Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis will deal each other political death blows in time for the 2024 election. Indeed, while the latter has yet to announce his intent, the former has been openly disparaging of his potential opponent for the GOP nomination. But what if the two men joined forces?

Trump can only run for another four years, meaning that DeSantis – as his running mate – would be in a good position to both secure the 2028 nomination and tell the nation that he has both state and national experience under his belt. A number of conservatives who have spoken about their disillusionment with the former president might return to the fold for such a combined ticket. As Liberty Nation Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner recently surmised:

“[F]or Republicans from coast to coast, it seems, Trump-DeSantis represents a Dream Team that would make the 1992 US Olympic basketball team blush. But perhaps just as satisfying is that their sweetest dream is also the left’s worst nightmare.”

The Democrat Dark Horse

But what of challengers within the Democratic Party? Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. has thrown his hat in the ring and, despite an otherwise united party front, has the potential to make things distinctly uncomfortable for the sitting president. Kennedy comes out of the gate with a significant name recognition factor, a dynastic advantage, and a platform that seems appealing to a considerable swath of primary voters.

The RealClearPolitics average puts him at 20%, and this is without either legacy media coverage or even tacit acceptance of his bid by the party he hopes to represent. Once the campaign season begins in earnest – especially in key states – the certainty of Biden’s bid for re-election becomes less so.

LN Editor-in-Chief Leesa K. Donner made a poignant observation regarding Kennedy’s prospects:

“It is often said that the people who tip the scales in elections are those in the middle, and RFK, Jr. will have significant appeal with independents, which now constitute the de facto plurality of voters. The extremes of both parties will largely try to brush off his candidacy, but strange things can happen when a non-politician throws his hat in the ring. The Kennedy campaign will force Team Biden to work harder, play smarter and do everything in their power to diminish someone who is not yet – but just might turn into – a real contender.”

Forget the Narrative

No matter what the political prognosticators push, 2024 remains a wide-open race with myriad variabilities still in play. The narrative that Trump is a spent force, that Biden is a shoo-in for the win, and that the final contest will be between the 45th and 46th presidents appears little more than wish fulfillment by the activist media desperate to support the status quo. The voters, however, might have other ideas.