Russia’s war on Ukraine is changing geopolitics. Neighboring Finland is abandoning its traditional neutrality as President Sauli Niinistö and Prime Minister Sanna Marin announced the country will apply for NATO membership. However, Turkey is already causing drama by signaling that it is skeptical about Finnish and Swedish membership.
Finland only became independent from Russia in 1917 during the Bolshevik revolution, and it has had a wary relationship with its eastern neighbor ever since. During World War II, Finland managed the incredible feat of being on all sides. It started with a defensive war against the Soviet Union, then teamed up with Germany to strengthen its chances against the communists, and finally joined with the allies, which included the Soviet Union, against Germany.
Finland managed to remain an independent country after the war, but only by becoming “Finlandized,” a pejorative term meaning a nation that remains nominally independent but wholly at the mercy and in agreement with the foreign policy of the Soviet Union. To stay free, Finland had to agree not to become a member of NATO, and it would become a buffer country within the sphere of Soviet influence.
That is why Finland’s recent announcement is of such geopolitical importance. The Finns argue, in much the same way they did in 1917, that Russia’s new regime had invalidated the original agreement. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded that it was “a radical change in foreign policy” and Moscow would react accordingly. Shortly after, the Russian state energy company RAO announced it would promptly cut electricity export to Finland.
Erdoğan
NATO General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg was pleased with Finland’s announcement and supported its move. Most NATO members greeted the decision positively. However, there is one fly in the ointment: Turkey’s President Recep Erdoğan expressed skepticism about Finland and Sweden joining the alliance, saying that the two nations were housing and supporting Kurdish terrorists.
Turkey expert Einar Wigen of Oslo University said that Erdoğan is likely using Finland as leverage to gain concessions from the other members. NATO expansion requires a unanimous decision by its member states, and Erdoğan is taking advantage of this power.
Another possibility is that Turkey is no longer the modern secular state that joined the alliance in 1952. Instead, Erdoğan has a clear vision to rebuild the Ottoman empire. Consequently, he may be more inclined to consider closer relations with Russia. At some point, Turkey may even leave NATO to pursue its domestic interests. However, leverage is the more likely explanation.
Sweden
If Finland joins NATO, Sweden is likely to follow suit. The Scandinavian powerhouse remained neutral during both world wars. If the Swedes decide to also apply for NATO membership, they will break with a century-long cornerstone of their foreign policy. It emphasizes the gravity of the situation and how much Russia’s war in Ukraine has altered the geopolitical landscape.
The world is in a state of transition with shifting alliances. History teaches us that such instability can result in confusion, disruption, and even an expansion of conflict. The political world map is likely to look quite different when this period ends. Meanwhile, prepare for turbulence.
