The 2024 presidential election campaign is shaping up to be anything but normal. Put aside for a moment that the GOP contender is technically a non-incumbent incumbent and that the Democrat hopeful has not won a single primary vote. What yet remains is the most bizarre electoral contest in modern history in which all things that were once held true are now – at best – highly debatable.
While Vice President Kamala Harris is leaving the groundwork to surrogates and only engaging in cozy tête-à-têtes with friendly media outlets, Donald Trump appears to be in the process of remaking what it means to campaign for office. It’s a high-risk gamble that is leaving the GOP cognoscenti with sweaty palms and a sense of spiritual unease.
Outsourcing the Campaign Shoe Leather
Traditionally, campaigns would pay staff or rely on volunteers to pound the pavements and speak to voters in key neighborhoods. A decision earlier this year by the Federal Election Commission, however, changed the way ground games can now be played. In March, the FEC determined that:
“Canvassing literature and scripts are not public communications, and as a result, are not coordinated communications under Commission regulations. Further, the costs to produce and distribute the canvassing literature and scripts are not coordinated expenditures.”
What this means in practice is that outside groups can spend their own time and treasure hitting the sidewalks, freeing up resources for campaigns to spend elsewhere. And that’s precisely what is happening now.
Turning Point USA and the Elon Musk–backed Save America PAC, among others, are running ahead with the “get-out-the-vote” efforts, knocking on doors and making the case for Trump – and the operatives are being very specific with their targeting. The Hill reports that these groups are focusing not on die-hard Trump supporters but rather on “those who may not be locked into supporting a candidate in November … Strategically, the campaign is focused on low- and mid-propensity voters who are known to support the former president.” It’s a bold strategy but one that could pay dividends if, and that’s a risky “if,” one assumes that Trump’s base is holding strong. Essentially, doors will be skipped if it is believed they are already counted on for a vote.
Sean Spicer, former White House press secretary under Trump, said, “They have a plan, the question is, is it going to work? ... An effective ground game is worth 2-3 points, and every one of these battlegrounds is within 2-3 points.” His math is both obvious and flawless. This election will be decided by a handful of votes in a handful of states.
However, it’s not only the door-to-door gambit that Trump hopes will get him across the finish line.
A Digital Battlefield
Trump has determined he will talk to anybody at any time about any subject under the sun, whether that’s an in-depth discussion on policy lasting two hours, hosted by Musk on the most significant media platform in the world today, or joining popular podcasters for a chat about mortality and UFOs. The former president is reaching out to audiences that may be averse to partaking of legacy media fare.
As Liberty Nation News recently noted:
“Combined with the growing popularity of long-form podcasts that reach audiences who are skeptical of Big-Box media, it is almost a certainty that Trump’s approach to this election, whether successful or not, will set the model for future presidential contests. American voters may have rewarded Joe Biden with the keys to the White House in 2020 despite his basement-style campaign. But the times they are a-changin’, and the public’s demand for accessibility and spin-free coverage is a wish that the new media nexus of independent outlets and social media ubiquity seems poised to grant.”
Conversely, Kamala Harris is eschewing these new audiences in favor of friendly turf. She appears to be running a campaign best suited to the admittedly successful Obama ’08 juggernaut: somewhat revolutionary at the time. And why wouldn’t she? It worked for Barack Obama twice; she has many of his people intertwined with her own nascent campaign. And when she ran as Biden’s number two in 2020, the whole campaign could have been effectively run from a small studio with occasional special guests.
But 2008 was 16 years ago. The digital world has changed, and it seems Harris and her cohorts have not. It’s the same people, same strategy; they seem to be hoping that a tried-and-tested formula will prove efficient ad infinitum. Team Trump, it appears, is rolling the dice on a new method of campaigning that could shatter the old playbook and usher in the new normal. A keen gambler knows when the odds are in his favor, but it is the long shots that captivate the public's imagination.
