Before it’s all over and no matter the outcome, the 2020 election debacle and how Americans respond to it will reveal one inescapable fact. The GOP has solidified into a working-class America First party represented by President Trump and his devoted grassroots supporters. Win or lose, “Drain the Swamp” is about to have its biggest moment, and any bog RINOS that don’t want to get swept away in its energetic wake dare not step directly into the line of fire.
No Red Pivot Is Possible
The evidence is overwhelming. Never Trump hangers-on and Old Guard Elephants for Biden were trotted out once again this campaign season. Former Ohio Gov. John Kasich spoke at the Democratic convention. John McCain’s widow very publicly aligned herself with blue nominee Joe Biden. Bush-era relics did the same.
What happened? Exit polls showed that 93 percent of Republicans voted for Trump. The man has the grassroots of this party. Never Trump is beyond meaningless at this point, and any Republican who boldly identifies with it during this heated court battle will be committing political suicide. This is the loyalty test From Hell for establishment Republicans holding office.
Careerist Republicans used to straggling fences and paying lip service to GOP issues of great import to the base are now having their nightmare scenario come true. They will have to take a forthright stand on the most significant controversy to affect a presidential election in 60 years (Nixon-Kennedy).
Any Republican who waffles and hedges over Trump’s legal challenges will suffer irrecoverable negative political consequences. Former South Carolina governor and 2024 presidential hopeful Nikki Haley is already desperately trying to stake out a middle course, as always. She is going to find she will not be allowed to do so. How will she react?
In two straight presidential elections, Trump has displayed a proven winning formula for Republicans in a polarized nation: secure the reliably red states and then take the blue-collar Rust Belt. Before the late-night Democrat ballot dumps, Trump was up by a whopping 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania, 300,000 votes in Michigan, and 120,000 votes in Wisconsin. Bottom line: Trump can appeal to working-class voters in these states in a way that K Street, inside-baseball Swamp Republicans cannot do. And Republicans cannot capture a presidential election without these states. If the party ever wants to win a national election again, then no pivot back to the stale Uniparty days is possible.
Organic Growth vs. Unnatural Coup
Establishment Republicans dearly needed Trump’s combative America First movement to fizzle out and fade away. Instead, the direct opposite is happening. The president’s impressive Election Day turnout showed the sheer vitality of this populist outsider force. Given that its entire existence is based on overthrowing entrenched systemic political corruption, Trump Nation will now be galvanized more than ever in pursuing the fight to come. And there is every indication that this coalition is growing, not shrinking.
Beyond the mail-in ballot fraud allegations, demographic change is profoundly affecting elections in once-staunchly red states such as Arizona, Georgia, and Virginia. A GOP establishment return to backing globalist trade deals and military adventurism abroad will not solve this problem one whit. In this election, Trump displayed an ability to appeal to Latinos and other minorities that an out-of-touch establishment can never hope to replicate. He did so by stressing class-oriented economic concerns about creating a level playing field in this nation that allows for equal opportunity – not equal outcomes, please note – rather than merely leaning on the lazy racial pandering favored by brave KKK denouncers like Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT).
The biggest battle of the Trump years against the political corruption that swept him into office is about to commence. Two outcomes are possible. Both will boost the president.
If Trump wins his legal challenge, major political players could be brought down – perhaps even sent to prison. The president’s reversal of fortune, if it comes, will give him the mandate to enact sweeping anti-Swamp corruption reforms.
If Trump loses, he may very well become even stronger. Despite our polarization, Americans fundamentally despise cheating and swindling by those in powerful positions. The anger that will come with an illegitimate Biden presidency will be enormous and deeply felt. And Trump will still be there to pilot the 2022 backlash. If he so chooses, he’ll be able to marshal his troops like never before, first targeting Republican establishment opponents in the primaries and then going all out after the Democrats in the general election.
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