President Donald Trump once again set the cat among the pigeons by declaring on his Truth Social account Sunday (June 15) that "we must expand efforts to detain and deport Illegal Aliens in America’s largest Cities, such as Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York, where Millions upon Millions of Illegal Aliens reside." These three centers have a combined population approaching 15 million and an estimated two million or more illegal alien residents.
Trump went further, highlighting what he sees as the main issues: "These, and other such Cities, are the core of the Democrat Power Center, where they use Illegal Aliens to expand their Voter Base, cheat in Elections, and grow the Welfare State, robbing good paying Jobs and Benefits from Hardworking American Citizens." Responses ranging from the fiery to the furious swiftly followed, but is he right?
Los Angeles
Population: 3.8 million. Illegal Immigrants: 1 million
In 2019, the Migration Policy Institute estimated an “unauthorized” Los Angeles population of 951,000 – a figure that has surely risen in the last six years – with the vast majority coming from Mexico and Central America.
While the president has not provided information on how such a huge percentage of illegal immigrants could “expand” the “voter base,” he may well be on to something with some of his other claims.
The US Census data is used in Congressional Apportionment to determine the number of congressional districts and, thus, seats in the House of Representatives. Currently, each district (represented by one House seat) encompasses roughly 700,000 residents, legal or otherwise. So, the presence of a million illegal migrants in Los Angeles at the very least helps dilute one and potentially two seats in the lower chamber. As Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) wrestles with razor-thin margins to pass the GOP agenda, these numbers make a significant difference.
The flip side of this coin, of course, is that it would benefit the minority Democratic Party politically to have as many illegal aliens in safe blue cities and states as possible – even if they can’t cast ballots.
But what of the “jobs” Trump mentions?
"I don’t think the president understands that we have entire sectors of our economy that cannot function without immigrant labor," Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass told CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday. Let’s start examining this statement by pointing out that, since she was directly referring to the riots sparked by deportation raids, Bass clearly is conflating legal immigrants with illegal aliens.
Putting that obvious canard aside for a moment, what are the numbers? According to Migration Policy Institute’s data, of the 915,000 working-age illegal population, more than 300,000 were either unemployed or not in the labor force. Notably, the most recent figures (courtesy of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics) show the number of people not participating in the labor force is now equal only to the heady days of COVID-19 when businesses were shut down.
New York City
Population: 8.2 million. Illegal immigrants: 560,000
The Big Apple has a big problem. While the number of illegal aliens is lower as a whole than that of Los Angeles, the population density is much higher, and therefore competition for resources is far greater. Although New York City Mayor Eric Adams has – in recent months – insisted that the situation cannot continue, his office is prone to engaging in rhetorical games.
As the NYC.gov site relates, “Nearly 100,000 asylum seekers have made their way to NYC, and with no end in sight, the city is poised to spend more than $12 billion through Fiscal Year 2025.” This appears to have been written around early 2023, and, since then, the number 100,000 has doubled. But are the more than 200,000 migrants all genuine asylum seekers?
Under President Joe Biden, illegal and legal border crossings rocketed, with almost one million people using the CBP One app to avoid face-to-face appointments when claiming asylum. For the industrious illegal migrant – especially those with no genuine claim to asylum – the app was a quick ticket to get roughly two years parole into the country. In essence, the digital pathway encouraged people to declare asylee status with numerous taxpayer-funded rewards.
As in Los Angeles, around 300,000 of these people are either unemployed or not in the labor force. The city has an unemployment rate of around 5% (similar to that of Los Angeles). But here’s the real problem for New York: homes. According to NYC.gov:
“As of 2023, New York City had 3,705,000 total housing units. Of these units, 1,109,000 are owner-occupied and 2,324,000 are renter-occupied.
“Over 40% of all rentes [sic] in New York City spend 30% or more of their income on rent and one fourth of renters spend 50% or more of their income on rent.”
More than 8 million inhabitants and fewer than 4 million places to live. Sure, there are couples and families, so it’s not a one-to-one equation – but with such a level of housing stock (and at such a high price), competition is fierce. This rat race ratchets up a notch when you get an extra 100,000 folks arriving each year. After all, they can’t stay in hotels forever.
Indeed, the exodus from New York City is very real. Census data suggest that the main reason for people leaving is (in the first place) “new job or job transfer” followed by “other family reasons.” Housing comes in third. However, when all housing-related reasons, such as wanting to “establish own household” or wanting “new and better housing” are factored in, it becomes the main motivation driving the evacuation.
Either New Yorkers are going to end up handing over more of their paycheck for an ever-dwindling supply of homes, or they’re going to ship out.
Chicago
Population: 2.6 million. Illegal immigrants: 450,000
While solid numbers are hard to find for the Windy City, Pew Research Center estimates that almost half a million illegal immigrants currently reside in the city and surrounding suburbs. Notably, despite Mayor Brandon Johnson’s insistence that he “will continue to fight for the justice and safety of all who call this place home,” many of the Chicagoans he serves do not share the same sentiment.
The Associated Press reported on the local dissatisfaction in April 2021, writing, “Black residents are frustrated that long-standing needs are not being met while the city’s newly arrived are cared for with a sense of urgency, and with their tax dollars.” The article went on to say:
“Chicago has already spent more than $300 million of city, state and federal funds to provide housing, health care, education and more to over 38,000 mostly South American migrants who have arrived in the city since 2022, desperate for help. The speed with which these funds were marshaled has stirred widespread resentment among Black Chicagoans.”
In fact, Chicago is rated as one of the worst places for taxpayer ROI. And it gets worse.
In August 2024, IllinoisPolicy.org damningly reported, “Nearly 100,000 Chicago-area residents are out of work, and at 6.2% the Chicago metro area has the highest unemployment rate of the nation’s 50 largest metro areas … The labor market has gotten so bad in Chicago that the metro area faces the highest unemployment rate of the 50 largest cities in the nation.” So, plenty of new illegal immigrants, but, with no job prospects and a rising cost of living, it's a recipe for disaster.
Chicago’s population is certainly not impressed, with the number of folks choosing to call it home dropping by more than a million since the 1950s, smaller now than 100 years ago. An Echelon Insights poll reported that 34% of locals would leave if they could.
Tough to Argue With Trump
Yes, each of these three cities has great pride in their histories, sports teams, and communities. But the numbers are the numbers, and life has gotten measurably worse for residents with the increases in illegal immigration and the leadership’s embrace of sanctuary status. Politicians and newsrooms may gnash their teeth at Trump, but the people who live in New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago can see the detriment with their own eyes.
