As often happens in the last months of an election cycle, polling data is spun into whatever message each side of the divide wishes to relay at any given moment. One might assume that, after the legacy media asserted boldly in 2016 that Hillary Clinton had a 99% probability of beating Donald Trump, such pronouncements would become more circumspect, not less. And yet, in what seems to be an effort to create “Kamalamentum” out of whole cloth, the Fourth Estate is back up to its old tricks.
Selling Certainty
Headlines abound daily with news that Vice President Kamala Harris is on the road to a victory of epic proportions. Indeed, the latest proclamation is that the Democrat hopeful is “within striking distance” of turning Florida blue – a mere five points behind Donald Trump. So revelatory was this latest chunk of polling that it briefly became one of the top stories in the country. But why?
That Harris should be 5% behind Trump in The Sunshine State is one of the least surprising data points of the campaign season. In 2020, Trump took Florida by just 3.3% against Joe Biden, and in 2016, by a mere 1.2% over Clinton. A poll saying Harris is five points behind suggests that it is Trump who is increasing his margin rather than the VP gaining ground.
And yet, that is not the faux zeitgeist on offer.
Polling Data in Perspective
The Real Clear Politics average of polls currently gives Harris a 0.9% lead nationally – notably, in both 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump never held a national polling lead. However, to adapt a phrase from George Orwell: All polls are equal, but some polls are more equal than others.
Considering only national surveys since President Joe Biden announced that he was no longer seeking office (a total of 25), there are numerous ways the figures can be analyzed. First is a straight tally, which gives Trump a slight 0.16% edge. Another way to consider the data is only to count polls that use Likely Voters (which is determined to be an overall more accurate measurement than Registered Voters). In this model, the GOP contender has an advantage of roughly 2.8%. But Trump supporters shouldn’t get too excited just yet – after all, polls are only indicators, and over or under-sampling can skew the information, and an average of polls confined to just August gives Harris a handy 1.28% advantage.
Swing States by the Numbers
Presidential elections are decided by the swing states; in an Electoral College system, it doesn’t matter that one candidate might have even 100% of ballots cast in their favor in a single large state; there is only the EC vote count. Getting to the all-important 270 votes involves making major plays for the handful of states that are neither reliably red nor blue. So, where do they stand?
Of the seven battlegrounds*, the RCP average hands five to Trump (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) and two to Harris (Michigan and Wisconsin). What is notable about this division is that just one month ago, Liberty Nation News reported that this was (barring results within the margin of error) exactly the same breakdown between Trump and Biden, suggesting that, while Harris appears more popular than her boss, the overall direction of the election has not changed much. And there’s a reason for that.
While Kamala Harris has now been the face of the 2024 Democratic Party's hopes for election for more than three weeks, she has yet to hold a press conference or engage with the public beyond pre-scripted rally events. At some point, she will have to answer questions and explain the reason she either didn’t know about Biden’s cognitive decline or refused to acknowledge it. She must also defend her record as Biden’s right hand.
Silence is the Golden Ticket?
Harris’ silence so far has worked greatly to her advantage: there have been no embarrassing word salads, no blatant flip-flops on positions an astute journalist might point out, and ultimately, no accountability. But it can’t last.
At some point, she will have to face the media and, by extension, the public. She will either rise to the occasion and put concerns to rest or dodge and weave and waffle. And until that happens, the spin on polling data is just that: an attempt to sell a product that does not yet exist in terms of responses or policy platforms. As PT Barnum famously noted, “Advertising is to a genuine article what manure is to land, - it largely increases the product.”
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