The Political Horse Race – May 7th

The polls, analysis, and betting odds - all right here at your fingertips each week on LibertyNation.com - Where Facts Matter.

The Candidates' Market Report

President Trump's approval ratings, despite minor weekly fluctuations, have remained steady around the 50% mark, the same place he was a year ago. However, a steady uptick in voters optimism over the direction the country is heading will likely prove more important come to the 2020 election. Optimism is sitting steady on 42% which is pretty much where it has been for over a year. Perhaps unsurprisingly, congressional approval ratings have barely moved out of the early 20s in a long long time.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 50% ( + 1% )
• Congress - 22% ( + 1%  )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

• Joe Biden - 13/5
• Bernie Sanders - 7/2
• Kamala Harris - 4/1
• Pete Buttigieg - 13/2
• Beto O'Rourke - 12/1
• Andrew Yang - 13/1

Once again, this week is all about Joe Biden who is dominating in just about every poll for Democrat contenders. The latest Harris Poll gives him a 32 point lead over his nearest rival, Bernie Sanders who lands on just 8%. This is quite a gap and one that we see being replicated (to a smaller scale) across the country. For the first time, the betting odds have placed former VP Joe Biden ahead of Senator Bernie Sanders. It has been a close race in the top three spots for the last two months with Bernie just about maintaining the lead, but it's all change this week. Kamala Harris hangs tight to her third position spot behind second-place Sanders by just half a point. Pete Buttigieg, aka, Mayor Pete, despite a promising start, appears to be slipping behind the pack now; whether this is due to recent storms in a teacup, or Biden performing well in almost every poll, remains to be seen. Beto O'Rourke's campaign seems to be dead in the water along with Warren and Yang. Cory Booker has slipped to 20/1, and with his recent comments about imprisoning all those who fail to hand over their guns, his campaign is effectively over. Rumors are that Bill de Blasio will be announcing his own campaign for the presidency this week; he has yet to show up in the major betting odds.

Presidential Election:

Donald Trump:

• Impeachment - 1/8
• Resignation - 6/1
• Complete First Term - 1-7
• Will France ask for the return of the Statue of Liberty - 200/1
• Trump to withdraw the SU from the UN - 7/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

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