A former Trump administration appointee and long-time MAGA loyalist believes the president’s war on Iran has killed the movement. “MAGA is dead,” said Carrie Prejean Boller, speaking to Piers Morgan. A lot of talk has circulated lately expressing similar sentiments. Left-leaning media outlets are usually the purveyors of such premature accusations, but now some conservative voices are vehemently expressing disapproval of the president and proclaiming MAGA is finished. It sounds dramatic and certainly gains attention. Still, a deeper look into the coalition’s views and formation tells a different story.
This MAGA Moment
A recent NBC News poll showed that the US attacks on Iran were supported by 90% of Republicans aligned with MAGA. “I do not believe that one bit,” Boller told Morgan. “I talk to MAGA people all day long, every day, and the everyday average American is absolutely against this war.” She said she has been “a loyal supporter of the president for almost 20 years” and considers him “a dear friend,” but doesn’t “recognize” him anymore. “Trump has betrayed our country,” she told Morgan, “and he has betrayed MAGA, and people are livid.”
Many people are angry, yes, but most of the president’s supporters still appear to back him and the Middle-East conflict. Just because some conservative figures insist the “coalition is shattered” and “utterly dead,” does not make it so. Some critics have made their arguments based on a Quinnipiac poll showing one out of four Republicans think the president has yet to provide a clear explanation for the war, and nearly the same percentage don’t believe Iran posed an imminent threat. This hardly suffices as an example to demonstrate the collapse of the president's core constituency. Not all Republicans identify as MAGA.
In a survey recently conducted by the Vandenburg Coalition and the GOP polling firm TargetPoint, 94% of those identifying as MAGA support US military action in Iran. The latest Economist/YouGov poll shows 87% of MAGA supporters approve of the operation, and three-quarters said the war is justified. The percentages for overall Trump voters are only a bit lower.
But hold on: A survey conducted last week by Navigator Research shows nearly a fifth of Trump supporters regret voting for him in 2024, a clear indicator that something is amiss in the Trump sphere, no?
Beyond the Movement
A study titled “Beyond MAGA” was published in January and revealed four types of Trump voters: “MAGA Hardliners, Anti-Woke Conservatives, Mainline Republicans, and the Reluctant Right.” The report was conducted by More in Common US, a nonpartisan organization, which used information from surveys, interviews, and group conversations with more than 10,000 Trump voters.
MAGA Hardliners are the core of Trump’s base. They’re “fiercely loyal, deeply religious, and animated by a sense that America is in an existential struggle between good and evil, with God firmly on their side.” Anti-Woke Conservatives are politically engaged and frustrated by the progressive stronghold on public schools, culture, and institutions. Mainline Republicans are “middle-of-the-road conservatives who play by the rules and expect others to do the same.” The Reluctant Right is the group most likely to have voted for Trump transactionally, because he was “less bad” than the alternative. Many in this cohort feel disconnected from national politics and think most politicians don’t share their priorities. This group accounts for 20% of the coalition, nearly the same percentage as Anti-Woke Conservatives. MAGA Hardliners are only 29% of Trump voters.
It is this broader coalition that put Trump back in the White House, a combination of his core constituency, GOPers, and non-traditional Republicans, such as disillusioned Democrats. That nearly 20% of his overall supporters in 2024 regret voting for him is not abnormal for a president. The same percentage regretted voting for Joe Biden in August 2021, according to Zogby Analytics. Of course, if the Iran war turns into a drawn-out quagmire, the president’s support for the war and his job approval may drastically sink and perhaps reflect poorly on Republicans during midterms. But MAGA will probably still be alive and well, cheering for the president.
Without question, Trump has created one of the most impressive movements in political history. He can’t please everybody, though, and he is unlikely to keep the support of every MAGA-aligned voter – that would be quite a feat. But for the movement to remain a significant force, it may need the other parts of the coalition. Plus, if Trump and the GOP focus too much on the hardliners and neglect the other 71%, they could wind up in a similar spot as the Democratic Party, pandering to its base while pushing countless Americans to the other side.
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