The Final Horse Race: The Last Leg as America Goes to the Polls

The Candidates' Market Report

When this column began in February 2019, President Trump was the two to one favorite to win the presidency, Joe Biden was a nine to one outsider to win the Democrat nomination, and it appeared that Trump's opponent in the 2020 election would be Senator Kamala Harris. Over one and a half years the odds have swung back and forth, political betting has become a favored pastime of many, and still, it is anyone's guess who is going to eventually emerge triumphant. During this last week of campaigning, President Trump has seen his approval ratings hover steadily around the low 50s, and his approval from black voters (a key demographic in any election cycle) is at 35%. While few pollsters believe that 35% of black voters will actually cast a ballot in favor of the incumbent, if Trump can garner 15% of this vote, he would not only secure a win, but perhaps even change the future of electioneering.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 52% ( + 1% )
• Congress - 14% ( no change )

Senate Map:

The shape of the 2021 Senate is arguably more important than who wins the presidency. Without a Senate majority, the president will be unable to pass major legislation (other than via executive order), which will seriously impact the effectiveness of the administration. This year, Republicans are defending more seats than Democrats, and as such, the Senate GOP is pushing hard for a solid win. RealClearPolitics has the likely breakdown as follows:

• Republicans: 46
• Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 45
• Toss-Up: 9

As America goes to the polls, the very latest surveys suggest that of the nine toss-up states, six will go to Democrats and three to Republicans. However, many of the polls that point to a Democrat lead are of less than 700 respondents and with a margin of error over 4%.

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to presidential power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. Florida

• Republicans - 8/11
• Democrats - Even

Texas

• Republicans - 3/10
• Democrats - 11/5

Arizona

• Democrats - 4/7
• Republicans - 5/4

Colorado

• Democrats - 1/33
• Republicans - 9/1

Georgia

• Republicans - 4/6
• Democrats - 11/10

Iowa

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 2/1

Maine

• Democrats - 1/14
• Republicans - 11/2

Michigan

• Democrats - 1/5
• Republicans - 3/1

North Carolina

• Democrats - 8/11
• Republicans - Even

Ohio

• Republicans - 2/5
• Democrats - 7/4

Pennsylvania

• Democrats - 4/9
• Republicans - 7/4

Presidential Election:

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.