The DC Shuffle: As the GOP Grabs a Trifecta, Trump Changes the Lineup

President-elect Donald Trump is building his administration – and he’s poaching from the incoming Congress to do so. So, who’s going where in DC, and what does this mean for the Republican majorities in the Senate and the House? How would any vacancies be filled? Who’s on first, What’s on second, and I Don’t Know is on third!

Shake Up in the Senate

The Senate races have all been called, and Republicans came out on top 53-47. Then Donald Trump nominated Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) to be the next US secretary of state, and – assuming he gets the job – the GOP’s lead in the upper chamber of Congress is reduced by one before the 119th is even sworn in.

Down by one, for now, that is. The 17th Amendment to the US Constitution, which provided for the direct popular election of senators, instructs governors to issue writs of election to fill vacancies. However, it also authorizes state legislatures to empower governors to make “temporary” appointments until successors can be elected. The word temporary there is emphasized in quotes because many states – including Florida – allow the appointed vacancy filler to serve until the next regularly scheduled election. In other words, whoever Florida Governor Ron DeSantis appoints to replace Rubio, should he choose to go that route rather than calling a special election, gets to serve until the end of Rubio’s term in January of 2029.

Interestingly, it also gives DeSantis plenty of time to campaign for the seat himself, should he want it. His current term as governor is up on January 5, 2027, and he would need at least one term out of office to be eligible to run for his current position again. But back to the more immediate transition:

According to the local Florida newspaper, Tallahassee Democrat, there are five people currently on the shortlist to replace Rubio: Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez, Florida AG Ashley Moody, DeSantis’ Chief of Staff James Uthmeier, former speaker of the Florida House José Oliva, or even Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law, Lara Trump. Some even speculate DeSantis might appoint himself or his wife, Casey, presumably for the same reasons he might later run for the seat in 2028. In fact, there’s one more interesting – if perhaps a bit outlandish – option, but we’ll come back to that later when we discuss the US House of Representatives. In any case, assuming DeSantis plans to immediately appoint a replacement (and why wouldn’t he?), Rubio’s transition out of the Legislative and into the Executive won’t have an actual effect on the GOP’s 53-47 lead.

Rubio doesn’t appear to be the only Republican senator, though, on the shortlist for the president-elect’s incoming administration. Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) was reportedly being considered for secretary of housing and urban development (HUD), but he has declared his intentions to remain in the Senate as the GOP campaign chair and work toward expanding the majority in 2026. Also in the running for this position are former HUD Secretary Ben Carson and former Deputy HUD Secretary Brian Montgomery. Sen. Bill Hagerty (R-TN) also seems to be in the running for secretary of Treasury, though he is not considered a frontrunner.

Who’s in the House?

Over in the House, Republicans finally secured a majority with 218 seats to the Democrats’ 212 – but then Trump started pulling from their ranks. At present, the president-elect has nominated Reps. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) to be the next ambassador to the UN, Matt Gaetz (RFL) for attorney general, and Mike Waltz (R-FL) for national security adviser. Gaetz has already resigned from Congress to prepare for the new posting. And that’s where things get interesting. Remember that other option DeSantis might consider for a Rubio replacement in the Senate? That would be the ever controversial Rep. Gaetz. While many of Trump’s picks – even some of the more eccentric ones – have met with nigh universal party support, some have not. His pick of Gaetz has proven rather unpopular among many in the Republican Party, and there’s a chance, should the Senate not allow recess appointments as Trump requested, that the Florida firebrand won’t get enough support even from a GOP majority of 53 to get confirmed.

Should that happen, some speculate DeSantis would appoint him to the Senate instead. That may be a stretch, however. To appoint Gaetz if he fails confirmation, DeSantis would have to hold off on appointing anyone until after the new Congress is sworn in and the Senate begins voting on presidential nominations – leaving the Senate GOP still in the lead but down one vote.

Other potential representatives who could be tapped for the Trump administration are Sam Graves of Missouri, who was reportedly on the shortlist for secretary of transportation, and Thomas Massie (R-KY) who, if RFK Jr. and a whole boatload of libertarians have their way, will be the next secretary of agriculture.

Is Trump Stretching the House GOP Too Thin?

But the more Trump pulls from the House for his Cabinet, the more likely he is to destroy the Republican trifecta he already had before he started nominating folks. And that, of course, is why none of the Florida representatives are being seriously considered for Rubio’s seat and why none of the Ohio Republicans in the House are likely to be appointed to fill incoming Vice President JD Vance’s Senate seat.

“It’s a great problem to have,” Mike Johnson (R-LA), who recently won his party’s nomination to be House speaker again, told Fox News on Thursday. “We have an embarrassment of riches in the House Republican Congress. Lots of talented people who are very attuned to the America First agenda, and they can serve the country well in other capacities.”

“But I’ve told President Trump, enough already, give me some relief. I have to maintain this majority,” Johnson added. The speaker then confirmed he and the president-elect have been talking regularly and that the party will still have a majority. Assuming Trump doesn’t poach any more representatives, however, and the GOP is just down Stefanik, Waltz, and Gaetz, that majority is still stressed, if nothing else.

Pulling three from the current total leaves the House at 215-212, with five seats still in play. Of those, just four are leaning Republican, with California's District 45 having the slimmest of slim margins. That leaves plenty of room to lose the majority, and there is no amendment allowing for the executive appointment of replacements. The governors will have to call special elections to fill those vacancies. There is no requirement to wait, of course, and DeSantis will likely get the ball rolling pretty quickly in hopes of having new GOP reps in place before the next Congress is sworn in.

Democrat Kathy Hochul of New York, on the other hand, might hold out as long as she can in starting the process of replacing Stefanik. According to 2 USC 8: Vacancies, the deadline for a special election is 49 days after the speaker of the House announces the vacancy, which must, by definition, be done after the new Congress is sworn in and the new speaker has been elected. So Hochul can’t stonewall forever, but she can certainly cause headaches for House Republicans. And, of course, surprises sometimes occur during special elections, as they aren’t the normal routine and don’t always see the same active voters as the regularly scheduled elections.

It’s an exciting time for Trump’s picks – many of whom would never have seen a presidential appointment under anyone else. But the president-elect’s hunting grounds could be a bit problematic. Will he ease off and give Mike Johnson his requested relief? Or, in his quest to drain the Swamp, will he drain his own trifecta instead?