The Budapest Memorandum: Strong Words Fading Over Time

The Budapest Memorandum was a statement of "Security Assurances" underpinning Ukraine's independence and sovereignty after the fall of the Soviet Union. The rise of Kyiv's government from under the iron boot of the communists was welcomed with overwhelming applause from its citizens. On December 1, 1991, the voters of Ukraine passed a referendum 92.26% to 7.74% to establish Ukraine as a sovereign, independent nation separated from the former Soviet Union, with 84.18% of registered voters taking part. By July 1993, over 40 countries formally recognized the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine.  Moscow publicly acknowledged the independence of Ukraine 25 days after the referendum.

But there was a problem. Ukraine had the world's third-largest stockpile of nuclear weapons. This nuclear capability was of little use to the fledgling Kyiv government, but it represented a significant threat of nuclear weapons getting into the hands of Islamic Jihadists and other terrorist organizations. The solution was for Ukraine to give up their atomic weapons and enter into the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. The Kyiv government was willing to do that. However, for that concession, Ukraine's president at the time, Leonid Kravchuk, wanted assurances of security, independence, and sovereignty.

In addition to the non-proliferation treaty, on December 5, 1994, US President Bill Clinton, Russian President Boris Yeltsin, UK Prime Minister John Major, and Ukraine President Kravchuk signed the Budapest Memorandum, establishing the assurances the Kyiv government sought. The words in the agreement are encouraging, and there is little doubt of the meaning. "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE [Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe] Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine," the memorandum states. The words seem to be straight forward language having little fuzz or wiggle room for interpretation. Furthermore, the signing nations pledged to "refrain from the threat of use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine," except in the case of self-defense.

Well, that sounds like solid, unwavering support. Not so fast. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is wondering what happened to all those earnest guarantees of solidarity with Ukraine's sovereignty and independence. "Here is the problem with the Budapest Memorandum: t's the language. The US gave Ukraine assurances, not guarantees... An assurance is basically saying we will help if we can," Dr. James Finck, Professor of History at the University of Science and Arts of Oklahoma, explained in an opinion piece written for the Royal Examiner. Oops. The parsing of words – vintage Clinton-speak – is the shield of the feckless.

Finck's clarifying words shed light on the absence of any real support to Ukraine in April 2014 that might have stopped Russia from moving troops into Ukraine's Donbas region and illegally annexing Crimea. The US did little to stop the invasion and occupation. To be fair, President Obama did deliver strong words of admonishment to President Putin and slapped Moscow with what proved to be ineffective economic sanctions. Fast forward to April 2021 and the movement of 70,000 Russian troops to Ukraine's eastern border. The Kyiv government frantically pleaded for support to thwart a Russian invasion.

Zelensky reminded the US and NATO of the Budapest Memorandum's security assurances. The US, European Union, and NATO allies engaged the Kremlin in countless rounds of talks but provided no significant military aid to Ukraine before Putin invaded. To fortify the spirit and letter of the Budapest Memorandum, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba signed the US-Ukraine Charter of Strategic Partnership on November 10, 2021. The document held powerful words and unmistakable intent emphasizing “unwavering commitment to Ukraine's sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, including Crimea, and extending to its territorial waters in the face of ongoing Russian aggression, which threatens regional peace and stability and undermines the global rules-based order."

Ukraine’s government is begging for additional effective anti-aircraft missiles and the MIG-29s offered by Poland – the US and NATO are wavering. There is a geopolitical lesson to be learned using the Budapest Memorandum as a primer. Regardless of what agreements, memoranda, or treaties say in words, seldom do they override nations' self-interest at any particular time. Nor is it true that everyone who agrees to a document's text has the same understanding of what it means to others. Unfortunately, President Zelensky is finding this out the hard way.

The views expressed are those of the author and not of any other affiliation.

~  Read more from Dave Patterson.