With the general election less than five months away, and as most of the nation considers the consequential political and cultural issues of the day, the biggest question swirling around in the background is: Will they, or won't they? Will Democrats replace Joe Biden – and perhaps Kamala Harris, too – before Americans go to the polls? To say that such a move would be momentous is something of an understatement. Still, it has been rumored in certain circles on both the left and the right. The answer to the question is no, they will not. Biden and his VP, Harris, will be the two names on the Democratic Party presidential ticket. Of course, anything is possible. This prediction is not carved in stone, but there are a couple of extremely compelling reasons why it is unlikely the current commander-in-chief will be ousted by his own party before November.
Should Biden prevail at the ballot box and defeat his presumed opponent, former President Donald Trump, then all bets are off. It is entirely fair to speculate that few people on either side of the political divide can honestly envision the 81-year-old incumbent – who will turn 82 just a couple of weeks after Election Day – completing another four years as president of the United States. That discussion is for another day, however.
As for Harris, her position is all but assured. Given the progressive left’s obsession with diversity and identity politics, there is no scenario in which the Democratic Party replaces the first female vice president of color. It may sound incredibly cynical, but the party would find itself unable to sideline Harris for anyone other than someone who checks the same – or, in their eyes, equally important – diversity boxes.
Biden Exit Strategies
There are three options available to Democrats, should they really consider a 2024 alternative to Biden. He has yet to receive his party's official nomination – and there is really nothing stopping the party faithful from nominating someone else. His closest confidants or family members could persuade him to step down. As a third alternative, there is always the 25th Amendment.
The last is not really an option for Democrats, for reasons that will become apparent. Section 4 of the 25th Amendment says, in part:
“Whenever the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, transmit to the President pro tempore of the Senate and the Speaker of the House of Representatives their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, the Vice President shall immediately assume the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.”
Outside of politics and policy, Biden has been the focus of much discussion – particularly over the last few months – around his mental state and indeed his physical condition. The White House and congressional Democrats have long insisted that Biden is as sharp as a tack and full of energy. The way many of them describe him, one would think Biden has the constitution of a 23-year-old Olympic athlete and a mental acuity on par with history's greatest scholars, scientists, and philosophers.
While news reporters are rarely trusted these days, their cameras do not lie. It is plain for all to see that Biden has some mobility issues, difficulty speaking clearly and remembering names, places, facts, and figures, and often appears confused and distracted – or even seizes up altogether for uncomfortably long periods of time. Biden’s staff and political and media allies have now resorted to insisting that footage showing him seemingly having cognitive or mobility issues has been somehow faked or selectively edited. These assertions are curious, to say the least, because what the American public has been watching is original television footage of Biden attending various public or political events.
No Viable Options
All this is to say that neither Harris nor a majority of the principal officers of the executive branch are going to inform Congress in writing that Biden is no longer able to discharge his duties as president. To do so would be an admission that they have been deceiving the nation for weeks – if not months or longer – about Biden's condition. Apart from the sheer humiliation for them, and for Biden himself, the repercussions of them invoking the 25th Amendment for a president they long insisted was in tip-top condition would be seismic.
The people closest to him could always persuade him to step aside, citing family issues or some other vague personal circumstances. This scenario brings forth a whole bunch of additional questions, however: Would Biden – who, not unlike his presumptive 2024 opponent, has a big ego – bring himself to bow out of the presidential race after all his tough talk and vows to defend democracy against Trump? That is not at all likely. That would be tantamount to admitting defeat before the first vote is even cast – and he has never come across as the kind of man who admits defeat easily, if at all.
Last, the Democrats could simply nominate somebody else to be their 2024 candidate for president. This is a fanciful scenario to say the least. With whom would they replace him? How would they explain this sudden substitution to the American people without essentially admitting that they believed Biden, for one reason or another, was no longer up to the task?
Once the Biden presidential nomination is official, there's no turning back. After all, several states would likely declare any replacement candidate after the nomination process has been completed ineligible to appear on the ballot. Whether they could do that is for lawyers and constitutional scholars to hash out. But it would seem more than likely that the entire election would be thrown into chaos and uncertainty if such an action were undertaken.
Barring a sudden and incapacitating decline in Biden's health – so grave that he was unable to carry on in his current position – the Democratic Party is, for better or for worse, stuck with him and his vice president until at least some months after Jan. 20, 2025, assuming, of course, that neither his record in the White House nor his clearly deteriorating health deters the American people from picking him over Trump.
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