With a few scant weeks until the 2018 Midterms determine the balance of power in the Swamp, rumors are snaking through the toady quagmire of stool sitters that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is retreating from battle – and taking its financial advertising aid, to boot – in some races.
Sparking the whispers was the quiet rescinding of advertising dollars in markets that cover the gamut in almost every state – most notably Florida and Iowa, where it appears that another October surprise indicates the leftists are only concerned with the survival of the fittest. Their less sure candidates, it seems, might end up in a cauldron of also-ran stew.
And that’s being kind. There is no loyalty in the swamp-fed Beltway, only expendable pawns.
But of course, the DCCC and their advocacy media are spinning their wheels, hoping the crowd sees it as a victory lap – as if to loudly proclaim, “we’re surfing such a big blue wave, we can just quit while we are ahead.”
There may be some truth to both contentions, but really, who can you trust?
Strategery over Strategy
Media buys are an artform whether your industry is widgets, retail, or politics, and we should acknowledge (whether you like them or not) that the DCCC should be well-versed and advised by the top firms in the country – or at least half of the top firms.
In 1964, the Madison Avenue firm of Doyle Dane Bernbach effectively hung presidential candidate Barry Goldwater from a towering tree. The infamous and spine-chilling Daisy ad – conspired by then President Lyndon B. Johnson – portrayed a child in a field plucking the petals off a flower as the monotonous countdown to nuclear Armageddon played. It was the figurative kill shot that ended Goldwater’s chances.
But lest we forget, today’s crusaders are playing politics on President Trump’s game board, and frankly, what has worked in the past has cost the Democrats more check mates in two years than in all of chess grandmaster Bobby Fischer’s entire career.
Anyway, the short explanation made long is that the status quo and impending results have long died an unseemly death at the hands of newcomer Trump, and Democrats are scrambling to make one iota of sense out of how their past winning strategies have failed them and revise accordingly.
And that means the weaker links must be set adrift in unfriendly waters.
David Shapiro
Kicked to the Curb
The Sarasota, Florida market and Democrat challenger David Shapiro were summarily abandoned by the DCCC after his lack of traction to unseat Republican incumbent, Representative Vern Buchanan in District 16. Shapiro’s race became a liability, hemorrhaging money that could be better spent in a possible win district.
Max Goodman, Buchanan’s campaign manager, was overjoyed at the announcement, “The DCCC decision to pull the plug on financial aid for David Shapiro confirms what independent polls have shown over the past two weeks—Vern Buchanan is going to win re-election.”
But Shapiro, through his latest spokesperson, Lauren French, tweeted:
It’s a race, folks. @Shapiro4FL16 raising DOUBLE what Vern Buchanan is bringing in. $1 million this quarter. Maybe Republicans should have saved some of that @VernsYacht money?”
Testy when the heat is on – but the fact remains, Shapiro is on his own for the duration.
Recent polls indicate a spreading margin – up to 10 points – and FiveThirtyEight now gives Buchanan a “6 in 7” shot at reelection.
In a less than obvious move, the DCCC has pulled ad dollars away from upstart challenger Representative Abby Finkenauer who, according to polls, has a solid lead over Iowa District 1 incumbent, Representative Rod Blum (R-IA).
[perfectpullquote align=”right” bordertop=”false” cite=”” link=”” color=”” class=”” size=”24″]For a red wave, blue grave, the Trump base must vote. [/perfectpullquote]
But as America witnessed in 2016, complacency and over-confidence led to a virtual pulverizing of Mrs. Clinton, so perhaps it isn’t the wisest move to cut funding for Finkenauer in the 11th hour.
Follow the Money
In any ideological camp, one can make assumptions of the viability of one candidate over another, and with some stratagem, place the crucial bet. But 2018 is not the time for presumption — as the events of the presidential election in 2016 has shown to all Americans — and the outcome is anyone’s guess.
The circling of the wagons by the DCCC is leaving several candidates outside the protective circle, but until the final vote is tallied, it’s still anyone’s game. It should be a reminder to conservatives that even though the Democrats seem to keep shooting themselves in the foot, there are no absolutes. For a red wave, blue grave, the Trump base must vote. No excuses.
