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Political Horse Race: A Brutal Home Truth for Warren

As Warren digs deeper for the nomination, the White House slips farther away

by | Oct 29, 2019 | Columns, Opinion, Politics

The Candidates’ Market Report

A bumpy week for President Trump as his approval ratings continue to take a hit amid the impeachment inquiry. Although he finished the week 2% ahead of where Barack Obama was at the same time during his first term, just a few days ago, Trump’s approval dropped below his predecessor’s for the first time in six months.

The race for the presidency has not yet really begun, even so, candidates are taking hits at a rate not usually seen until the final rounds. Each seems determined to secure the top spot and take a swipe at Donald Trump; encouraged by polling, the leading Dems believe they might even have a chance. The betting odds tell a very, very different story.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

  • Donald Trump – 45% ( – 2% )
  • Congress – 22% ( – 1% )

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Democratic Party Nominee:

  • Elizabeth Warren – 11/10
  • Joe Biden – 10/3
  • Pete Buttigieg – 6/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 7/1
  • Andrew Yang – 11/1
  • Hillary Clinton – 16/1
  • Kamala Harris – 20/1

Elizabeth Warren is as near as possible to even money to win the nomination. Despite recent issues regarding her inability to bravely name who will end up paying for her plans, she continues to go from strength to strength in both the national polling and the betting odds. Joe Biden remains confident that when it comes to casting a vote, faithful Democrats will turn back to good old Uncle Joe; even though his war chest has shrunk to an alarming $9 million.

Mayor Pete continues to perform well and may even get a spot on the VP ticket regardless of who ultimately wins the nomination. Buoyed by a fawning media, Pete Buttigieg has become the Cinderella story for every small town politico with dreams of grander things.

Last week’s brief flirtation with Hillary Clinton seems to have dried up. Was it her claims that just about everybody is a Russian asset that spooked a usually compliant press, or is the DNC ready for new blood?

Presidential Election:

  • Donald Trump – 6/5
  • Elizabeth Warren – 11/4
  • Joe Biden – 6/1
  • Pete Buttigieg – 11/1
  • Bernie Sanders – 13/1
  • Andrew Yang – 25/1
  • Hillary Clinton – 33/1
  • Kamala Harris – 40/1
  • Mike Pence – 40/1
  • Nikki Haley – 50/1
  • Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
  • Mitt Romney – 90/1
  • Cory Booker – 100/1
  • Beto O’Rourke – 150/1

As mentioned above, Warren just about has the nomination in the bag, sadly for her, that might be the pinnacle of her political rise. She is polling well nationally and is even giving Biden a run for his dwindling money. She is leaps and bounds ahead of competitors for the ticket. So why are the odds of her winning the White House plummeting?

President Trump has done nothing to shift his own odds up nor down. Other Democrats are slowly slipping to the sidelines. Warren should be climbing in the betting market, but she just isn’t. The reality is that winning the nomination is one thing, winning the White House is an entirely different game. It is easy to promise freebies and increasingly left-leaning tropes to those who already intend to vote Democrat regardless of the candidate. But convincing the vast swaths of the country that flushed red in 2016 that your last six months of promises will be good for them is a far tougher sell. This is not just an incumbent advantage, this is a necessary casualty of a heated primary.


Donald Trump:

  • Impeachment – 1/3
  • Resignation – 1/12
  • Trump to grant dual US nationality to all Mexicans – 300/1
  • Trump to marry for a 4th time as President?- 4/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.


Read more from Mark Angelides or comment on this article at LibertyNation.com.

Read More From Mark Angelides

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