UK Elections – Does Today Mark the End of the Two-Party System?

Today (May 7), a significant swath of Brits head to the polls to vote in local elections. Such small-scale ballots were traditionally focused on garbage collections and potholes, but with the growing disaffection in politics – aimed squarely at the ruling Labour Party and the Conservative Party – politicos and pundits are treating them as a midterm equivalent. And with potentially the biggest defeat for any establishment party ever as the most likely outcome, UK politics may never be the same again.

End of the Line?

Before getting to the almost certain defeat of Sir Keir Starmer’s ruling Labour Party, it’s worth sparing a thought for His Majesty’s loyal opposition, the Conservative Party. The party of Margaret Thatcher and Winston Churchill, rightly regarded as the most successful political outfit of all time, is on the cusp of no longer being a national party. But how could such a reversal of fortunes happen in a contest that is not even a general election?

As well as in local council elections in large parts of England today, voters are also casting ballots in the devolved parliaments of Scotland and Wales: Holyrood, the Scottish body, and the Welsh Senedd elections. The Labour Party is in the unenviable position of having to defend the lion’s share while contending with historic deficits in overall approval. But the rise of the Reform Party and the reinvigorated Green Party is at the root of the anticipated toppling of the UK’s two great parties.

Reform UK – An Unstoppable Force?

Labour won the general election in a landslide back in 2024, and it has all been downhill since then. Nibbling away at the edges of its supposed “red wall” support in the north of the country is the Reform Party, whose leader, Nigel Farage, made his own parliamentary breakthrough in ’24. Notably, in every single poll for the last 12 months, Reform has placed first – not bad for a new party. And while it was initially thought it was only the Conservatives who were bleeding members, support, and treasure to Reform, the surveys show a clear decline for Labour, too.

Indeed, if a general election were held today, a polling aggregate suggests Reform would be the largest party in Parliament with around 250 seats (out of 650). Second place would go to Conservatives with just 128, and Labour a distant third on only 78 (a loss of 334 seats). This is the backdrop as the two parties that have exchanged power for the last 100 years head into today’s elections – a midterm referendum by another name would smell as sour. But that is the big picture; the local contests are set to be even more damning.

The projections are enough to create panic across Westminster.

Local Elections Matter

Of the almost 5,000 local seats up for grabs, Labour is defending 2,557; polling suggests it will lose between 50% and 75% today. The Conservatives are defending more than 1,300 and will be lucky to save even a third of that number. Different parts of the country hold local elections in different years, so Reform currently has zero seats to defend. However, if last year’s elections are any indication, it is likely to score big – with an estimated 1,300 pick-ups. This will mean that not only does it win more seats than any other party, but that it gets more votes than any other party.

But that’s not the end of the bad news for the big two.

The Green Party has been on the eco-fringes of UK politics for several decades. With a core message on tree-hugging and environmental issues, it failed to make a significant breakthrough. Until now. Headed by new leader Zack Polanski, the party has shifted its focus from the environment to Gaza and has been courting the “independent Palestine” vote among the Muslim voting blocs.

One might assume this was a recipe for electoral disaster, and yet, with sizable, concentrated Muslim enclaves across the country, it is a formula for a certain amount of success.

The Muslim vote has been reliably Labour since it became a bloc. So, while Reform has been taking Labour votes in the traditional working-class heartlands from the right, the Greens are now encroaching on its territory from the left. The Greens are projected to win almost 700 seats in today’s contests.

What does this mean for Starmer?

Parliament on Maneuvers

Sir Keir is arguably the least popular prime minister since records began. His downfall from winning a huge majority in 2024 to being on the outs in 2026 is nothing short of a lesson in failure. And his own party would have already moved to oust and replace him if it were not for today’s elections.

Unlike in the United States, Brits don’t vote for a prime minister; they vote for a party – meaning that the current leading party can have an internal election to jettison an unpopular leader while still remaining the party of government. So why haven’t they?

The simple answer is that no one wants to be the leader of a party that oversees a crushing local election result. In normal times, that leader must resign, step aside, or be removed by a party vote. Starmer is holding on only because they want him to shoulder the blame for the anticipated losses. And when the dust settles, the smart money says he will be shuffled off to “gardening duty,” while the Labour hopefuls pitch their dreams and schemes.

By this time tomorrow, when the ballots are counted, the results declared, and the crying jags finished, the prime minister will effectively be a dead man walking, and the Conservative Party will be a shadow of its former self in constituencies across the country, and maybe even nonexistent in certain parts of the UK.

Who said the pothole and garbage collection elections weren’t worth watching?