The Candidates' Market Report
This week has seen polls dominate the headlines, but not necessarily for the reasons you might think. It began with CNN publishing their own poll showing Joe Biden with a 14-point lead over President Trump. Much lauded and widely broadcast, the actual integrity of the survey appears to have flown under the radar. Not only did the poll of 1,259 purposely include an oversample of 250 black, non-Hispanic adults, it also underplayed support by containing just 25% Republican voters. The Devil is, as ever, in the detail. But what of the rest of the country? With all elections, it comes down to the economy, and recent COVID-19 events have certainly put a halt on the tidal wave of good economic news. However, the latest Rasmussen survey on Consumer Confidence shows a 16-point jump this month, bringing it back in line with the heady days of Trump’s first months. If the trend continues, it could spell doom for the Democrats hoping to capitalize on recent disasters.This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump - 44% ( - 4% )
- Congress - 17% ( no change )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden - 1/33
- Hillary Clinton - 12/1
- Michelle Obama - 33/1
- Bernie Sanders - 50/1
- Andrew Cuomo - 66/1
- Kamala Harris - 100/1
- Elizabeth Warren - 100/1
- Kamala Harris - 11/10
- Val Demings - 4/1
- Elizabeth Warren - 17/2
- Keisha Lance Bottoms - 11/1
- Michelle Obama - 11/1
- Amy Klobuchar - 12/1
- Stacey Abrams - 12/1
- Gretchen Whitmer - 16/1
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation's Tim Donner puts it:"Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin - he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in '16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling - both swing states Trump lost in '16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now."The odds of each party winning the following states:
- Florida: Democrats -8/11; Republicans - Even
- Arizona: Democrats - 4/7; Republicans - 5/4
- Michigan: Democrats - 1/3; Republicans - 2/1
- Wisconsin: Democrats - 8/15; Republicans - 11/8
Presidential Election:
- Joe Biden - 8/11
- Donald Trump - 5/4
- Hillary Clinton - 50/1
- Mike Pence - 50/1
- Bernie Sanders - 100/1
- Andrew Cuomo - 100/1
- Michelle Obama - 100/1
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
- 251 - 269 = 10/3
- 270 - 275 = 7/1
- 276 - 280 = 7/1
- 281 - 290 = 10/1
- 291 - 300 = 14/1
- 301 - 315 = 15/2
- 316 - 330 = 9/1
- 331 - 350 = 10/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
~ Read more from Mark Angelides.

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