The Candidates’ Market Report
An interesting week in American politics has President Trump losing two points in his approval ratings but benefitting from a general strengthening of support when compared with his potential Democrat opponents. Recent polling shows that only 12% of voters reckon Trump will be removed from office during his first term, suggesting that the impeachment trial may wither on the vine. Only 33% of voters predict a Democrat will win in November, making a Trump re-election look far more likely.
The Iranian situation has not hurt the president’s job approval numbers, but neither has it helped. With the prospect of imminent war off the table, the focus is shifting back to the Democratic candidates, none of whom, so far, has made any comment on Iran shooting down a passenger plane. If there’s one thing voters like less than a politician who comments on everything, it’s one that is too scared to comment on anything.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 48% ( – 2% )
- Congress – 17% ( – 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 9/4
- Bernie Sanders – 9/4
- Elizabeth Warren – 5/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 7/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 9/1
- Hillary Clinton – 25/1
- Andrew Yang – 25/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 40/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
It’s all change this week as Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden are now tied for the top spot on 9/4. Strong polling figures and betting odds for Bernie in both Iowa and New Hampshire appear to have strengthened his grip on the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. The first casualty of this resurgence was Elizabeth Warren, the other candidate offering a progressive bulwark against frontrunner Biden, who dropped a clear half point.
Pete Buttigieg, fresh off the heels of Black Lives Matter crashing his rally, may be on the verge of hanging up his campaign boots. The South Bend mayor has been toppled from his top-tier status by latecomer Michael Bloomberg who gained a point and cost Buttigieg two.
With primary season just around the corner, the outsider candidates are starting to fall away. Cory Booker has waved the flag of surrender, Andrew Yang and Hillary Clinton both took massive losses dropping to 25/1, and all other contenders are just a speck of dust in the rearview mirror of the electoral mean machine.
Primary Races
Iowa Caucus
- Bernie Sanders – EVS
- Joe Biden – 3/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 5/1
Nevada Caucus
- Joe Biden – 4/5
- Bernie Sanders – 15/8
- Elizabeth Warren – 10/1
New Hampshire Primary
- Bernie Sanders – 4/6
- Joe Biden – 5/2
- Pete Buttigieg – 4/1
South Carolina Primary
- Joe Biden – 2/9
- Bernie Sanders – 21/10
- Elizabeth Warren – 5/1
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 4/6
- Joe Biden – 6/1
- Bernie Sanders – 6/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 14/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 25/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 33/1
- Hillary Clinton – 66/1
- Andrew Yang – 40/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 80/1
- Mike Pence – 100/1
- Nikki Haley – 100/1
- Michelle Obama – 125/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 150/1
- Mitt Romney – 200/1
Elizabeth Warren (Photo by Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)
Michael Bloomberg leapfrogs two spots to overtake both Warren and Buttigieg, landing on 14/1, just two points up on where he was last week. Warren’s odds have taken a dramatic nosedive from 9/1 to 25/1; if she can’t place well on Super Tuesday, her campaign is effectively over. Pete Buttigieg is suffering much the same fate as he becomes embroiled in yet another race row, dropping from 13/1 to 33/1 in just seven days.
President Trump is still firmly in the lead but may be getting worried about a last-minute surge from Bernie Sanders who is now level-pegging with Joe Biden on 6/1 odds. Recent trash-talking from Bernie about other candidates could be responsible for his latest comeback, signifying that there is still some fight left in the Vermont socialist.
The outsider candidates have tumbled to betting odd depths that seem all but insurmountable. Hillary Clinton, once thought to be holding out for a last-minute run, is now on 66/1, and Tulsi Gabbard faces a very long walk to the White House at 150/1. One thing is abundantly clear: It will be Donald Trump running for the Republicans come November.
Donald Trump:
- Senate Convicts – 12/1
- Senate Doesn’t Convict – 1/50
- Complete First Term – 1/12
- How Many Republican Senators Vote to Convict Trump:
- Zero – 4/6
- 15 to 19 – 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
