Political Horse Race: Electoral College in Trump’s Grasp

The Candidates' Market Report

This last week has given Trump quite a boost with a swing toward an Electoral College victory. His job approval numbers have reached 52%, just one point below his all-time high, and although almost all major polling still gives Joe Biden the lead, the battleground states are where the election will be won. On most major issues, polling shows that Biden and Trump are neck and neck in terms of voter trust. When it comes to job creation and the economy, it seems Trump is slightly more favored, although on public safety Biden has the edge. The question remains which of these two driving factors will convince the voters when they step into the booth. Rasmussen's White House Watch shows Biden with a four-point lead this week, an increase on last week. Although, President Trump's support among black voters appears to be remaining steady and could prove decisive on November 3.

This Week’s Major Players

Approval Ratings:

• Donald Trump - 52% ( + 6% )
• Congress - 18% ( - 2% )

Senate Map:

When it comes to presidential elections, the shape of the next Senate is often overlooked. Here's a round-up of what the polls are saying right now:

• Republicans: 46
• Democrats (including Independents who caucus with Dems): 45
• Toss Up: 9

The states that are a toss-up include Georgia, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Of these, the latest polling indicates that five will go to Republicans and four to Democrats.

What the Gamblers Say

As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.

Swing State Odds

Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. These are the states that are most likely in play and what the betting odds suggest. Florida

• Democrats - 4/5
• Republicans - 10/11

Texas

• Republicans - 1/4
• Democrats - 5/2

Arizona

• Democrats - 8/11
• Republicans - Even

Colorado

• Democrats - 1/8
• Republicans - 9/2

Georgia

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 15/8

Iowa

• Republicans - 4/11
• Democrats - 15/8

Maine

• Democrats - 2/9
• Republicans - 4/1

Michigan

• Democrats - 4/11
• Republicans - 15/8

North Carolina

• Republicans - 4/5
• Democrats - 10/11

Ohio

• Republicans - 1/2
• Democrats - 13/8

Pennsylvania

• Democrats - 8/15
• Republicans - 11/8

Presidential Election:

Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump:

• 270 - 299 = 5/1
• 300 - 329 = 5/1
• 180 - 209 = 11/2
• 210 - 239 = 11/2
• 330 - 359 = 6/1

Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.

~ Read more from Mark Angelides.