Political Horse Race: The Specter of Harris Haunts 2028

With the midterm elections just a few weeks away, Democrat contenders for the 2028 presidential election are beginning to make their presence known. Whether it is to help with the post-November autopsy or to claim credit for whatever impact their mere presence had on candidates and campaigns, the primary beauty pageant is underway. Once again, former Vice President Kamala Harris appears ready to try to win the Miss America political crown.

Demurral, Denial, and Dice Rolls

Apparently, only her hairdresser knows, but the smart-money bettors and pollsters seem to think that Harris — a twice-failed presidential candidate — is going to run, regardless of her public protestations.

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An average of the last three months’ surveys gives the former VP a lead of almost 14 points, with her distant second-place competitor being California Gov. Gavin Newsom. While the Golden State Golden Boy will be out of office when the primaries come around, he has publicly stated that if Kamala throws her hat in the ring, he will decline to run, citing the turmoil it would create to have two Californians tearing strips off one another. For those familiar with political double-speak, a rough translation of that might be: I have to do everything possible to tank her campaign before it gets off the ground.

And we may have seen such tactics already in action.

Harris Hangs in the Balance

A recent Wall Street Journal exclusive details conversations with folks “in the know.” The article examined statements and suggestions about a potential Harris 2028 run, with particular attention paid to her recent moves. Whether it’s touting candidates in Democrat-favored contests or gathering a team of advisers and staff whose only careers seem to be getting their boss elected, all evidence – despite the tone of the article — suggests a whole foot is testing the water.

Hope and change may be her oh-so-original mantra — and that plays with the punters, for sure — but the donors who make a campaign possible are not exactly on board the Harris Train.

The Los Angeles Times embarked on an outreach program in May to generous donors who have dipped into their pockets for the former VP in elections past, and the mood is not quite so confident. The outlet quotes one anonymous fundraiser who said:

“I don’t think it’s a helpful narrative [for 2028] to start with the 2024 hangover … There is an enormous appetite for new blood – something fresh, something that really represents the future, not the past.”

It’s a sentiment echoed by Dick Harpootlian, a South Carolina Democrat strategist who told the outlet, “She’s run, she’s lost, so the question’s going to be, is there somebody that gives Democratic voters more of a sense that they could win? ... That’s what all of us are looking for. We want to win in ‘28.”

Betting Markets Get the Heebie-Jeebies

Harris has been the bookies’ pick for some time, but an insurgent New York politico has toppled she-who-would-be-queen. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez recently took the top spot in the betting markets and is now the favorite at four to one, an implied 20% probability. Harris has dropped to a fourth-place 12-to-one (7.7% probability) behind Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff and the aforementioned Newsom.

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In the run-up to the 2022 midterms, Liberty Nation News examined the early betting odds on 2024 and wrote at the time that the gambling outfits gave then-former President Donald Trump “a handy lead … but the bad news for Biden is that he doesn’t even make the top two.” Indeed, Trump was the Big Beast, closely followed by Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who was three to one to win the presidency.

At that time, Harris was three to one to win her party’s nomination and ten to one to win the presidency. An aspiring 2028 Harris must be longing for those numbers right now. But as the saying goes, the more things change, the more they stay the same, which could herald a repeat of 2024. And that’s bad news for the pollsters’ Democrat frontrunner.