The Candidates’ Market Report
President Trump has had a roller-coaster week. From hitting a job approval rating of 52% earlier in the week (a high not seen since September last year) falling to a fairly poor 46%, the coronavirus and its impact on the stock market has taken its toll on the president’s standing. But it’s not all bad news for Trump. Of the 13 states that hold a Republican primary on Super Tuesday, Trump will likely sweep them all without any hitch. Just a few locations have a challenge from Bill Weld who will be lucky to muster over 6%.
It’s all to play for in the Democrat primaries, especially now that Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have withdrawn from the race and endorsed Joe Biden. The odds of a Biden success in the primary have shot through the roof, ousting Bernie Sanders from his top spot. Even Beto O’Rourke has been rolled out to support the former VP, with Biden saying that Beto will be his point man on gun control.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 46% ( – 3% )
- Congress – 17% ( – 1% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – EVS
- Bernie Sanders – 5/4
- Michael Bloomberg – 10/1
- Hillary Clinton – 25/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 40/1
- Michelle Obama – 100/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 200/1
The best thing to happen to Joe Biden in this primary race so far is the suspension of the Buttigieg and Klobuchar campaigns, and it couldn’t have come at a better time. On the cusp of Super Tuesday, moderate Democrats with no love for the progressive wing of the party now only have one real choice available… and it’s reflected in the numbers.
Biden leapfrogs Michael Bloomberg and Bernie Sanders back into a first-place position that he has been watching wistfully for a very long time, and Bloomberg slips from his high perch (or box). In the last 24 hours, the betting markets have taken Biden from an also-ran to the firm favorite, something that is also being reflected in the polls. Elizabeth Warren has not moved a single point either way, remaining as a longshot to win the nomination on 40/1.
Hillary Clinton is still lurking in the background on 25/1, perhaps waiting for an opportunity to step in as the compromise candidate if this race makes it all the way to Milwaukee without a clear leader.
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
Candidate to win the most Super Tuesday primary delegates:
- Bernie Sanders – 1/4
- Joe Biden – 5/2
- Michael Bloomberg – 25/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 50/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
- Donald Trump – 4/7
- Joe Biden – 7/2
- Bernie Sanders – 4/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 22/1
- Hillary Clinton – 66/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 100/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 300/1
Bloomberg drops from 9/1 to 22/1 as a result of his incredibly poor performance on the debate stage coupled with President Trump’s merciless mocking; the only thing that can save his campaign now is beating out Bernie Sanders in a number of key primary states. But even if he does, Trump still holds a solid lead over every other candidate in the race for the White House.
Again, Joe Biden should be very grateful to Pete Buttigieg for dropping out as he jumps from a 20/1 outsider position back into the Big Show on 7/2 as a real player in the 2020 election.
Quite why Elizabeth Warren is still in the race is a question that may soon not even need to be asked. On 100/1 to win the presidency, the senator has almost no support among cash bettors, and according to the delegates in the last four primaries, no support in her own party either.
At this stage in the game, it appears Tulsi Gabbard is only hanging in to highlight just how little she thinks of her fellow Democrats.
- Complete first term – 1/18
- Trump and Putin to receive joint Nobel Peace Prize – 50/1
- Trump to withdraw the U.S. from the U.N. – 7/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.