The Candidates’ Market Report
President Donald Trump finished last month with a job approval rating of 49%; this is up two points from his November rating and just a single point short of his 2019 high, back in April. Despite the impeachment actions taken by Democrats, the president’s popularity hasn’t really changed, signifying that either his base is not concerned about the upcoming trial or that Democratic voters are not convinced their party has made the right move chasing impeachment.
The most significant aspect of this week’s betting market is what’s happening in the Democratic primary field. Joe Biden is struggling to maintain his lead against a reinvigorated Bernie Sanders, and early polling for Super Tuesday appears to be spooking cash bettors into hedging bets.
This Week’s Major Players
Approval Ratings:
- Donald Trump – 50% ( + 2% )
- Congress – 18% ( – 2% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 15/8
- Bernie Sanders – 11/4
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/2
- Pete Buttigieg – 7/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 8/1
- Hillary Clinton – 13/1
- Andrew Yang – 18/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 20/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 66/1
While Biden maintains his 15/8 favorite position for winning the Democratic Party nomination, regular polling is starting to point to a very different story. In an Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus poll, Biden actually ties with both Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg on 23%, and in a New Hampshire Primary poll, he finishes second behind Sanders, who is two points ahead.
This last-minute surge by Bernie in the run-up to Super Tuesday is also reflected in the betting odds. Increasing his position from 7/2 to 11/4 is quite a leap for the Vermont senator. But perhaps Sanders’ new lease of life and Biden’s ever-loosening grip on the top spot have more to do with the other contenders’ failure to motivate rather than their own positive actions.
Elizabeth Warren lost half a point, and Pete Buttigieg dropped from 6/1 to 7/1 for the nomination. All signs point to their dispute over “wine caves,” turning bettors and voters off; an unseemly bit of bickering in which it turned out both candidates were guilty of hypocrisy.
Presidential Election:
- Donald Trump – 5/6
- Joe Biden – 9/2
- Bernie Sanders – 13/2
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 13/1
- Michael Bloomberg – 16/1
- Hillary Clinton – 25/1
- Andrew Yang – 35/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 40/1
- Mike Pence – 40/1
- Nikki Haley – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 66/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 100/1
- Mitt Romney – 100/1
Joe Biden (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Buttigieg drops two points, as does Michael Bloomberg, just a few weeks out from Super Tuesday. Bloomberg’s strategy of skipping early states may not turn out to be a smart move as he is cast to near outsider status. Warren gains two points but is still a 9/1 longshot and suffering in regular polling.
Hillary Clinton maintains a 25/1 shot at winning the White House, but all this may change as we near the final bell; if no candidate can secure a large enough chunk of support, she may well draft herself into position. For example, Joe Biden, the clear frontrunner, has yet to break the 39% support he first achieved back in early 2019, and no other candidate has even come close to that figure.
Donald Trump:
- Senate Convicts – 12/1
- Senate Doesn’t Convict – 1/50
- Complete First Term – 1/12
- How Many Republican Senators Vote to Convict Trump:
- Zero – 5/6
- 15 to 19 – 12/1
- Trump to surgically enhance his hands – 500/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
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Read more from Mark Angelides.
