Political Horse Race – Senate Edition

Historical trends and received wisdom suggest the House of Representatives is highly likely to flip come the November midterms. Despite all the redistricting efforts, the figures point to a Democrat takeover. As such, all attention has turned to the Senate as the last bastion of Republican control.

Discussions of a potential blue wave are rife, and if the media is to be believed, Democrats have a better-than-even chance of seizing control of the upper chamber. Are legacy media outlets engaged in yet another bout of wish fulfillment? Or do the numbers point to a clean sweep?

Poll Parsing

The general consensus is that the following eight Senate seats are in play this November.

Some appear to favor Republicans, but most seem to favor Democrat candidates. But what's the reality? In general, media outlets pounce on polls as soon as they are released and treat them as big news, and more often than not, the gospel truth. More savvy operators, however, look at polling averages.

Liberty Nation News takes this one step further. Our exclusive Public Square polling tool makes a distinction between polls that have a higher value in terms of accuracy. How do we do this, you might ask? Well, not all polls are created equal.

The formula is relatively simple. For the midterm races, we base our average on only the more recent surveys and include only polls of “likely voters.”

Senate Battlegrounds

Georgia – Incumbent Democrat Senator Jon Ossoff faces Republican Representative Mike Collins in a state that Trump won by 2.2 points in 2024. One might assume this is fertile ground for the GOP, but waning presidential approval numbers suggest Ossoff might have a fairly easy path to reelection, with a campaign war chest to match.

Ossoff currently leads Collins by an average of six points; that’s quite the mountain to climb for the challenger. However, over the last 30 days, this race has tightened fractionally, and some considerable outlier surveys hand the incumbent an oversized average. This is Jon Ossoff’s race to lose.

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Texas – This race is one of the most watched so far. Democrat James Talarico is battling it out with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton to fill the seat of primary-ousted GOP Senator John Cornyn.

The Lone Star State is typically considered deep-red territory, yet Talarico is currently polling two points ahead of Paxton – well within the margin of error. The issue here is that Paxton has a litany of past corruption charges and accusations weighing him down, but he still defeated a popular senator in the primary. In fact, Talarico's bizarre statements on God and “trans children” might be the only things keeping this race so close.

North Carolina – With GOP incumbent Thom Tillis retiring from the Senate, this is an open race, which Democrats hope to flip. Democrat Roy Cooper is the odds-on favorite to beat Republican Michael Whatley, with an average polling lead of a staggering nine points.

The Tar Heel State went for Trump by three points in 2024, but it is usually a toss-up in terms of Senate races. Tillis was sent to the upper chamber twice, but by less than a two-point margin both times. The betting markets give Whatley just a 7% chance of retaining the seat for the GOP.

Ohio (special) – Former Democrat Senator Sherrod Brown – who lost a reelection bid in 2024 – is up against GOP Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed last year to replace now-Vice President JD Vance. Brown has name recognition and a huge pile of cash to aid his campaign, and while this was initially thought to be an easy win for Husted, it has gradually slipped to a toss-up.

LNN’s Public Square currently shows Brown leading by roughly four points, just outside the traditional margin of error. But a lot of star power is backing Husted, and incumbency counts for something in any race.

Maine – GOP Senator Susan Collins probably thought she would have had an easier race. After all, her original opponent was Graham Platner, who pulled out at the last minute after a sexual assault allegation (which he denies) and controversies. However, the new candidate, former state Senate President Troy Jackson, appears to have united the voting base behind his campaign.

Polling favors Jackson by roughly 3.5 points, but name recognition and fundraising are both on the incumbent’s side. The Beltway chatter suggests all roads to Senate control go through Maine – a significant race.

Michigan – This is an open race due to the retirement of Democrat Gary Peters, and it is one of the big target seats for Republicans. A win for the GOP here could be an effective roadblock. Battling it out are Democrat candidate Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers in a tense competition, which polls suggest leans toward El-Sayed by just 2.4 points.

Rogers is hoping that El-Sayed is tainted enough by his association and campaign appearances with YouTube personality Hasan Piker, who claimed Hamas was preferable to Israel and that America deserved 9/11 – statements he later walked back.

Iowa – Republican Senator Joni Ernst is retiring from Congress, leaving a pitched battle between GOP candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat state Rep. Josh Turek. The Public Square shows Turek leading by 1.2%, but this is largely driven by a couple of outlier polls that have pushed him ahead in what otherwise would be a razor-thin race.

If Republicans can flip Michigan and hold Iowa, Democrats will have no route through these seven states to winning a majority.

Alaska – There’s optimism in Democrat circles that former Rep. Mary Peltola can oust incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan. Peltola currently has a two-point lead, but that’s well within the margin of error. What might cause issues is that this is actually a four-person race due to Alaska’s four-person primary.

In what critics call a case of “dirty tricks,” another “Dan Sullivan” is also on the ballot. As LNN’s Executive Editor Leesa K. Donner recently asked, “Is it possible someone just might fill in the circle of the first Dan Sullivan instead of the second? You can bet on it, and perhaps that’s exactly what the new Dan Sullivan is hoping will happen.”

Is the Senate Math Mathing?

The current Senate balance is 53 seats for Republicans and 47 for Democrats, including the independents who caucus with them. While many of the 35 races this November are non-competitive, it only takes a small shift in certain key states to switch who has the power.

To overcome the tie-breaking vote of JD Vance as president of the Senate, Democrats need to flip four seats – that’s a net figure. If they lose even one of the seats they are currently defending, they have to flip five. This means the GOP is in a defensive position, with the hope of minor sorties in more competitive territory.

Whether the ultimate result will matter to a lame duck President Donald Trump is a whole other question. After all, he still has a veto that almost certainly can’t be overridden with the numbers at hand, and spending the next two years blocking Democrat legislation might well set up his eventual successor with a pointed question often referred to by LNN’s Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner: “What have you done for me lately?”