The Candidates’ Market Report
With all eyes on the primary races taking place for the Democratic Party, very few eyes in the media have turned to the Republican Party race. Perhaps this is an oversight, perhaps it’s just not as exciting a race when the top player is already the president, or could it be the numbers are so impressive that a biased media would rather not be touting them to the general public?
In Iowa, President Trump garnered more than 97% of the vote, winning all but one of the state’s 40 delegates. New Hampshire gave Trump less of the vote share (85%), but all of the 22 available delegates. In fact, the figures show that in New Hampshire, Trump received more Republican Party primary votes than any other politician in the last four decades. The president seems confident he will win both states easily, come Election Day.
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 49% ( no change )
- Congress – 17% ( – 2% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Bernie Sanders – 6/4
- Michael Bloomberg – 2/1
- Joe Biden – 7/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 8/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 18/1
- Hillary Clinton – 22/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 100/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 150/1
Michael Bloomberg has secured his position among cash bettors as the number two contender for the Democratic nominee on two to one. Joe Biden slips ignominiously to seven to one from the giddy heights of nine to two. Despite strong showings in both Iowa and New Hampshire, the betting markets don’t share the same confidence in Pete Buttigieg, who fell two and half points this week.
After winning almost 20% of the New Hampshire votes, Amy Klobuchar has reignited her campaign and gained six delegates; this puts her on Liberty Nation’s Election 2020 Primary Scoreboard. Jumping from 40/1 to 18/1 this week, the senior senator from Minnesota is set to place fourth in Nevada and fifth in South Carolina, perhaps giving her an easy shot at securing a VP nomination.
- Bernie Sanders – 1/4
- Pete Buttigieg – 5/1
- Joe Biden – 8/1
South Carolina Primary
- Joe Biden – 8/11
- Bernie Sanders – 6/4
- Pete Buttigieg – 16/1
- Donald Trump – 4/7
- Bernie Sanders – 9/2
- Michael Bloomberg – 5/1
- Joe Biden – 20/1
- Pete Buttigieg – 25/1
- Amy Klobuchar – 33/1
- Hillary Clinton – 80/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 100/1
- Tulsi Gabbard – 150/1
- Tom Steyer – 150/1
Now that the Senate impeachment trial is well within the rearview mirror, the betting markets have relegated Mike Pence, Mitt Romney, and Nikki Haley to the outfield, showing that it is a certainty that the only Republican candidate on the ballot this election is Donald J. Trump. At 4/7 to win a second term, the president is in a strong position to point out that the Democratic Party has failed to coalesce around one single candidate.
Bernie Sanders has gained a point and a half and is now second in the odds to win the election, still quite a distance behind Trump, but Michael Bloomberg is hot on his heels. Joe Biden has had a dramatic tumble from 10/1 to 20/1 in just the space of a week, and it’s even worse for Elizabeth Warren. The Massachusetts senator, formerly a favorite to win the nomination, is now a 100/1 longshot to win the presidency.
Despite a tremendous showing in Iowa and New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg’s odds of becoming president have actually slipped, showing that while there are quite a few contenders who could win the nomination, only one or two people have any chance of challenging President Trump.
- Complete first term – 1/12
- Trump to paint the exterior of the White House gold – 500/1
- Donald Trump approval rating to drop below 20% during his 1st term – 2/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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