The Candidates’ Market Report
It appears that certain chickens are coming home to roost and that cash bettors are looking at unexpected options to gain a return. As the country begins to relieve lockdown restrictions and businesses start to reopen, President Trump’s approval ratings are on the rise, hitting 49%, a high not seen since late February and the start of the Coronavirus crisis. If the president can position himself as leading the economy back to record highs by November, it could make all the difference to his campaign.
Joe Biden is having a difficult campaign. Despite advocates stressing their belief in him over the Tara Reade allegations, his chances of winning are slowly slipping away. This week, CNN ran a story stating that the steadiness of Biden’s polling numbers was “record-breaking” and that no candidate since 1944 had been as consistent. However, the polling also showed the race was too close to call, suggesting that Trump may also have “steady support.”
This Week’s Major Players
- Donald Trump – 49% ( + 4% )
- Congress – 25% ( + 4% )
What the Gamblers Say
As with most things, if you follow the money, you can’t go too far wrong. This is a selection of the odds for key races and events.
Democratic Party Nominee:
- Joe Biden – 1/8
- Hillary Clinton – 8/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 25/1
- Michelle Obama – 33/1
- Bernie Sanders – 40/1
- Kamala Harris – 75/1
From a seemingly unassailable 1/33, down to 1/10, and now on 1/8, Joe Biden is seeing his chance of winning the nomination decrease. The idea that he hasn’t been impacted by the Tara Reade accusation is a dishonest lie being pushed by hucksters with an agenda. The disappointing numbers for Biden are likely not just a result of sexual assault allegations (which President Trump has also faced), but include his inability to get out and attend rallies and town halls.
After 2016, Democrat strategists realized that you can only win the Electoral College vote if you get out and meet the people in key swing states, so the Coronavirus crisis has been a mixed blessing for the Biden campaign. On the one hand, the economy has tanked and unemployment is way up (undercutting Trump’s chances of campaigning on a strong economy), but on the other, due to the lockdown restrictions, Biden is unable to capitalize on this by heading out and making his pitch in the areas that will decide the presidency.
Interestingly, Kamala Harris has once again entered the lists. She is a long way from the top spot, but this could suggest bettors think that Biden will be crowned in Milwaukee with Harris as his running mate, and then have to drop out before the actual election.
Biden’s Running Mate
- Kamala Harris – 7/4
- Amy Klobuchar – 4/1
- Elizabeth Warren – 9/2
- Michelle Obama – 8/1
- Gretchen Whitmer – 9/1
- Stacey Abrams – 10/1
Swing State Odds
Certain states hold the keys to power in 2020. The following are the ones that President Trump needs to do well in if he intends to serve another four years. As Liberty Nation’s Tim Donner puts it:
“Florida, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin – he must win Florida and two of the others to squeak by. In fact, if he wins the 27 other states he won in ’16, he could win just one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, or Wisconsin and still win with exactly 270 electoral votes. On the other hand, Virginia and Colorado will be telling – both swing states Trump lost in ’16. A true bellwether is probably Minnesota, which he lost narrowly and is going after hard this time. Through all of this COVID stuff, I will stick with my prediction of 350 electoral votes or more, at least for now.”
- Florida: Democrats – 5/6; Republicans – 5/6
- Arizona: Democrats – 4/6; Republicans – Even
- Michigan: Democrats – 4/9; Republicans – 6/4
- Wisconsin: Democrats – 8/11; Republicans – 10/11
The Democratic National Convention has been postponed and is expected to begin on August 17.
Head over to Liberty Nation’s Primary Tracker for all the latest results, odds, and polls.
- Donald Trump – 10/11
- Joe Biden – 6/5
- Hillary Clinton – 20/1
- Andrew Cuomo – 35/1
- Jesse Ventura – 35/1
- Justin Amash – 50/1
- Mike Pence – 50/1
- Michelle Obama – 50/1
- Bernie Sanders – 80/1
The presidency still looks set to go to Donald Trump with no change in his odds this week. However, a recent addition may upset the math in the weeks to come. Rep. Justin Amash, formerly a Republican, now with the Libertarian Party, has entered the lists at 50/1. While his chance of winning the presidency is incredibly small, a third-party contender can do major damage in swing states across the nation … it all depends on who he takes votes from.
Monmouth University polling gives Biden a lead of 50% to 41% over President Trump. But when Amash is added to the mix (polling at 5%), Biden loses 3% compared to Trump’s 1%. Seeing as Amash has not yet begun campaigning in earnest and that his support appears to come largely from Democrat voters, a strong showing could scupper Biden’s chances of winning key states.
Donald Trump and the Electoral College:
Number of Electoral College votes awarded to Trump
- 251 – 269 = 4/1
- 270 – 275 = 11/2
- 276 – 280 = 5/1
- 281 – 290 = 13/2
- 291 – 300 = 6/1
- 301 – 315 = 6/1
- 316 – 330 = 7/1
- 331 – 350 = 12/1
Make sure to check back next week for all the numbers that count.
Read more from Mark Angelides.
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Govt. Response to Coronavirus
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The Primary Process
High School: The Primary and Caucus Process Explained
Middle School: The Primary and Caucus Process
Elementary School: Primaries and Caucuses: How Do They Work?
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